Home teams in baseball win the game by 1 run approximately 17% of the time. (Photo credit: Keith Allison / Foter / CC BY-SA)
The run line is to MLB odds what the point spread is to football or basketball betting.
It’s a handicap designed to level the playing field a bit more and give you better return when you bet on the favourite, or a better chance of winning your bet on the underdog.
But while you may know the importance of key numbers like 3 and 7 in football betting, or the difference a half-point can make in basketball betting, you probably don’t fully appreciate the significance of the -1.5 run line to the MLB odds.
An Example
A typical matchup between the Blue Jays and Astros in 2014 looked like this:
Moneyline: Blue Jays -220/Astros +202
Run Line: Blue Jays -1.5 -109/Astros +1.5 -101
O/U: Over 10 -105
You might have been tempted to jump on the Blue Jays -1.5 at -109 odds. After all, the Jays were much better than the Astros, and it’s much more preferable to lay $109 to win $100 than it is to lay $220.
But if you think about it, the value in this scenario was likely with the Astros. Everyone knew Houston stank so most bettors would look to play the Jays on the run line to get cheaper odds. The oddsmakers will shade the run line MLB odds accordingly, so you could probably grind out a small long-term profit taking the +1.5 in situations like this.
Run line MLB odds, like any other sports betting odds, vary by sportsbook. You’ll generally get the best run line MLB odds at reduced-juice sportsbooks like Pinnacle and 5Dimes. But make sure to shop around at recreational books like Bodog or Sports Interaction if you are taking +1.5 because they often inflate lines on underdogs.
Understand The Value Of 1.5 Runs
Leaning towards underdogs and getting the best odds will help, but the most important key is to realize what 1.5 is worth on the run line.
The value of 1.5 varies by the MLB odds on the contest. Here are 5 questions to ask yourself when deciding whether or not to make a run line bet:
1. What is the moneyline?
The first step is to look at the game moneyline and run line MLB odds and convert those odds into a percentage chance of winning.
In the Jays/Astros example from above, the no-juice moneyline for the Blue Jays is (-220-202)/2 = 422/2 = -212. This suggests Toronto will win (212/312) * 100, or 67.9% of the time.
Similarly, the no-juice run line for Toronto is (-109-101)/2 = -210/2 = -105. This suggests Toronto -1.5 on the run line will win (105/205) * 100 = 51.2% of the time.
The market ‘believes’ Houston will lose by exactly 1 run 16.7% of the time (67.9-51.2). Over the past 8 years, large favourites in the American League with totals around 10 have won by exactly 1 run about 18% of the time.
If there’s a difference between these two numbers, it suggests either the Houston +1.5 -101 or Blue Jays -220 odds (or both) have value. A 1% disparity in the odds probably isn’t enough of an edge for you to make a bet, but it’s a good start.
2. Who’s At Home?
In football, basketball or hockey, blowouts are typically won by the home team.
Baseball, however, is different. Home teams win games by one run approximately 17% of the time, while visitors win by one run just 11% of the time.
The simplest reason for this is that games end any time the home team has a lead entering the bottom of the ninth. That means that if the home team wins in regulation, they’ll have one less at-bat than the visitors.
If the game is tied at the end of 9 innings, there’s only a 7% chance the home team will win by more than 1 run. As soon as the home team takes the lead in extra innings, the game is over. Your only chance of winning by more than 2 runs is if someone hits a home run with a runner on base.
Strategy is also different for home teams or visitors. If a home team is leading by 2 runs in the top of the ninth, they won’t worry about the first base runner and just focus on preventing the tying run from scoring. If a visiting team is leading by 1 run in the top of the ninth, they’ll play for an insurance run with sacrifice bunts and other tactical moves.
3. What’s the total?
The lower the total, the more likely that the game will be a tight one. An over/under doesn’t guarantee how many runs will be scored, but it’s a pretty good indicator of how much offence there will be in a game.
For example, a game between two strong starting pitchers may have a total of 7 runs. Assuming the home team wins and only 7 runs are scored, there are only 4 possible scores: 4-3, 5-2, 6-1 and 7-0.
If 11 runs are scored, however, there are six possible winning scores for the home team: 11-0, 10-1, 9-2, 8-3, 7-4 and 6-5. That’s 50% more ways for the home team to win.
Interestingly, games with low totals (ie. 7) see home teams win by 1 run nearly 50% more often than games with totals of 11 or higher.
4. How big is the favourite?
A fourth important factor is how heavily a team is favoured.
Believe it or not, teams that are heavily favoured are more likely to win by exactly 1 than a team in a pick ’em range. You might not expect that because you expect good teams to blow out weaker teams. But don’t forget, teams need to win the game before they can win by exactly 1.
5. What about the bullpens?
When you’re looking at betting the -1.5 run line on the MLB odds, relief pitching is a huge factor.
If the game is close after 5-6 innings, the bullpens come into play, making +1.5 runs more valuable. If you’re laying -1.5 runs, you’ll want the opposing team to have a weak bullpen.