Week 11 CFL Betting Picks: Labour Day Rivalries

Betting every game on the board can be a dicey proposition, but it paid off for us in Week 10 with our best week of the CFL betting season.

Starting with a pair of wins in Thursday’s Montreal/Winnipeg clash, we went 3-1 last week to move back into the black on the year.

It’s tough to find edges in every game, but we think we’ve found some angles to exploit in each of this week’s matchups as well. Besides, having something riding on every game can make those Labour Day weekend matchups even more exciting.

Let’s just hope for similar results to last week with these Week 11 CFL betting picks.

 

Week 11 CFL Betting Lines

You’ve gotta love Labour Day Weekend in the Canadian Football League.

In our last blast of summer before the kids head back to school and we get into our winter routines again, the CFL always delivers with some great divisional games. And we’ve got that again this year as four of the fiercest rivalries resume, including the classic Battle of Alberta between the Eskimos and Stampeders Monday afternoon.

Edmonton/Calgary also has the largest point spread of Week 11, with the Stamps laying 11 points at home against an Eskimos squad that was unbeaten until two weeks ago. It’s incredible how far Edmonton’s star has fallen following a loss in Winnipeg and then getting blown out at home last week versus the Roughriders.

Speaking of Saskatchewan, their rivalry game with Winnipeg will have a bit more spice to it now that both teams are actually… good. The Bombers continued their red-hot pace last week with a win at Montreal, yet find themselves as 2-point underdogs against the surging Roughriders. Oddsmakers project a shootout in this one, posting a sky-high total of 61.

The other 2 games of Week 11 are all-East affairs, but they still have the potential to be very good matchups. Ottawa is a 1-point favourite to win in Montreal and leapfrog over the Alouettes in the Eastern standings on Thursday night. And in the late game Monday, the winless Tiger-Cats are 4.5-point home underdogs against the Argos.

Week 11 CFL Betting Picks

1. RedBlacks at Alouettes Betting Pick


All aboard the RedBlacks train! A 1-6-1 start that the defending Grey Cup champions got off to would normally be enough to derail a team’s playoff hopes, but not in the mediocre Eastern Division. And Ottawa has taken advantage, winning its last 2 outings to get into position to move into second in the East with a win Thursday night.

While the RedBlacks come into this game with tons of momentum, the Alouettes do not. An overtime loss at home to Winnipeg last week was not only a deflating one, it was also the Als’ sixth loss in eight games following a season-opening win over the Riders. Offence is Montreal’s huge problem right now, with the Als striking for just 61 points in regulation time over their last three games.

Ottawa has covered the spread in seven of the last eight meetings between these squads, and 16 of its last 21 on the road. Montreal continues to struggle at home, where the Alouettes have covered just 5 of their last 17 games.

But as much as we like the RedBlacks here, we like the way their defence matches up against Montreal even more. Ottawa has held opponents to 27 points or less in seven of its last eight games, and we don’t see Montreal moving the ball very well on the RedBlacks in this matchup either.

Pick: Alouettes Team Total Under 25.5 -110

2. Blue Bombers at Roughriders Betting Pick


All signs point to a high-scoring affair in this one. Unfortunately, the oddsmakers are all too aware, posting one of the highest Over/Unders of any CFL game this season.

Is there still value in the Over 61? Maybe. Winnipeg cranks out 30+ points as if it were a bodily function, scoring that many points in nine of its last 10 games (even if the Bombers needed OT to get there last week.) And Saskatchewan has put up 38 points or more in three of its last four games, and four of seven.

The Roughriders are humming along at home as well, winning each of their last three games as host by double digits. But the Green Riders are a bit banged up coming into this one and it’s hard to get in front of this Bombers team right now, the way Winnipeg keeps pulling games out at the end.

The Blue Bombers are also nearly automatic bets on the road, covering 15 of their last 18 games as the visitor. Their offense is the reason why, evidenced by the fact Winnipeg has gone Over the total in 17 of its last 21 games overall and 11 of its last 12 on the road.

We expect this game to be close, and we expect there to be points. Tons of ways we can go with this game, but if a team is going to be blown out here, we don’t expect it to be Sakatchewan. Let’s go with another team total in this one, this time taking the Riders Team Total Over.

Pick: Roughriders Team Total Over (expect it to around 32, since the total is 61 and Saskatchewan is a 2-point favourite.)

3. Eskimos at Stampeders Betting Pick


A game we were all salivating over a few weeks ago is now priced to be a blowout, with Calgary laying double digits against its northern rivals.

The value here is obviously on Edmonton. But do we want a piece of the Eskies right now? Just as importantly, are we at all interested in going against a Stampeders defence that has allowed 17 points or less in four of its lsat five games?

The short answer is no, we’re not. As tempting as it is to grab the points with Edmonton, they’ve got some issues right now. Their offence rarely breaks 30 points (scoring 31 or less in 3 straight and 8 of its last 10), and the defence routinely gives up 28+ (4 of its last 6). Calgary’s offence is also sputtering a bit right now, but the Stamps may cover this game just by scoring in the mid 20s.

Which is the way we see this game being played. Labour Day rivalry matchups may make you think offensive fireworks, especially between these two franchises, but these defences will also be ratcheted up. Instead of asking Calgary to cover this inflated number, let’s use a 6-point teaser to move the Stampeders down to a much more manageable number and lay under a touchdown with the hosts.

Pick: Stampeders -5 (first leg of 6-point teaser)

4. Argonauts at Tiger-Cats Betting Pick


It was a 3-ring circus in Hamilton this week, with former Baylor head coach Art Briles temporarily hired as a Ticats assistant coach before public backlash led to him not getting the job after all.

That may take a bit of the focus away from another major move the Tabbies made over their bye week – the decision of Kent Austin to step down as coach and hand the reins to offensive-minded June Jones. Midseason coaching changes have a way of getting teams’ attention and, as bad as the Cats have been this year, we expect them to be up for this one.

Especially at home, especially on Labour Day, and especially against the hated Argos. Toronto is coming off a 23-7 loss last week in Calgary, continuing a recent trend of offensive woes. The Argos have been held to 27 points or less in 8 of their last 9 games and may not be able to take advantage of a Hamilton defense that has got torched week after week.

The spot is too good to worry that Hamilton rolls over and plays dead in this one, but we don’t have that much confidence in the Tiger-Cats’ ability to win a close one. Instead, let’s close out our 2-game teaser by moving the Cats into a double-digit underdog.

Pick: Tiger-Cats +10.5 (second leg of 6-point teaser at +100 odds at Pinnacle)