Week 9 CFL Picks: Can BC Bounce Back Versus Calgary?

The point spreads suggested we were in store for some great games last week, but the CFL didn’t quite deliver on that promise.

Even though 3 of the 4 games had spreads under a field goal, the closest game we got in Week 8 was the Eskimos’ 7-point victory over Ottawa on Thursday. The Alouettes blew out the Ricky Ray-less Argos 21-9 Friday in Montreal, Hamilton remained winless with a 39-12 loss Saturday at home to the surging Blue Bombers, and the Roughriders pounded a toothless-looking bunch of B.C. Lions 41-8 Sunday in Saskatchewan.

Our Week 8 CFL betting picks went 1-1. The win came on our first 6-point teaser of the season, as Ottawa +8.5/Saskatchewan +8 cashed at even odds. Our loss was on the Tiger-Cats, who we expected a much better effort from (we also weren’t sold on the Blue Bombers, but may need to change our stance on that since Winnipeg just keeps on winning.)

Still waiting for that first breakthrough week to get us back into the black on the year as we stand at 6-7 against the spread so far. Maybe our Week 9 CFL betting picks will do the job.

 

Week 9 CFL Betting Lines

Just like last week, there are only 3 Week 9 CFL betting lines up on the board as of Wednesday, even though there are 4 games on the schedule.

Oddsmakers are waiting on the status of Toronto QB Ricky Ray (shoulder injury) before hanging a number on the Argos’ home game versus the Alouettes on Saturday night. Last week, the bookies made the Als an 8-point home favourite, and Montreal held Toronto to 142 net passing yards in an easy 12-point victory.

Week 9 actually starts a couple of days earlier than that, as the undefeated Eskimos are just 1-point favourites as they visit the Blue Bombers in Winnipeg.

In the early game of Friday night’s doubleheader, two struggling teams meet in Hamilton as the RedBlacks take on the Tiger-Cats. Ottawa is laying 3.5 points, the first time it’s been favoured on the road all season. But the winless Tabbies are a woeful 1-5-1 against the point spread so far, so bookmakers may have to inflate the line a bit in order to get anyone to bite on Hamilton.

Friday night’s late action offers what could end up being the game of the week, with the Stampeders installed as a 4.5 point favourite over the host B.C. Lions. Calgary has won each of its last 3 games by 17 points or more, while the Lions couldn’t have looked worse in their last outing, trailing 29-0 at halftime Sunday in Saskatchewan and committing 7 turnovers.

 

Week 9 CFL Betting Picks

1. Eskimos at Blue Bombers Betting Pick


We’re not huge believers in either of these teams.

Edmonton may be 7-0, but its average margin of victory is a mere 5 points per game and the Eskimos have beaten up on some of the weaker teams in the league (the only team they’ve played that is currently over .500 is the Lions.)

Meanwhile, the Blue Bombers are just eighth in the CFL in total yards on offence and seventh in total yards on defence. In their two games against opponents with winning records, Winnipeg allowed 29 points to the Stampeders and 45 to the Lions.

However, laying 1 point with the Eskimos looks like the way to go in this one. Winnipeg only had 4 days to prepare for this game after playing a road game in Hamilton last Saturday, while the Eskies will have been off for a week since their win in Ottawa. The Over is tempting as well, but we’ll ride with the better quarterback at this short price.

Pick: Eskimos pick ’em -110 at Sports Interaction 

 

2. Stampeders at Lions Betting Pick


Records, stats and trends all point to the Stampeders in this matchup.

Calgary is 5-1-1 and has held three of its last five opponents to 10 points or less – almost unheard of in the CFL – while the 5-3 Lions have surrendered 37 points or more in three of their last four outings. And the Stamps have covered the number in seven of their last nine games versus the Leos, and 12 of their last 16 visits to B.C.

But the situation favours British Columbia, and it favours them big. The Lions were humiliated last week, a loss that didn’t sit well with legendary coach Wally Buono. His teams usually respond well after poor outings, and B.C. has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games following a loss. Buono is also making a statement to the rest of his team by sticking with quarterback Jonathon Jennings as his starter, even though Jennings was pulled last week after going 14-for-30 with four interceptions.

The Stampeders may be feeling a little too comfortable about their play right now after beating up on the Argos, Ticats and Roughriders the past three weeks by a combined score of 128-35. We ordinarily hate to bet against Calgary after it has had a bye week, but it’s tough for the coach to crack the whip too much following three blowout victories.

Plus, Calgary’s bye could actually help us here. While it may take a few minutes for the Stamps to settle back into game action, the Lions should be motivated and focused as soon as they hit the field. Let’s take B.C. to get off to a strong start and not have to worry about the possibility of a Calgary comeback we all know they’re very capable of making.

Pick: Lions First Half +2 -110 at 5Dimes