The Packers and Vikings are an NFC North rivalry where you don't typically see the road team laying 10 points. (Photo credit: Mike Morbeck / Foter / CC BY-SA)
NFL betting line moves early in the week are a good indication of where the most money is coming in.
As oddsmakers take more and more bets on a team, they’ll move the NFL betting lines in order to try to balance the action with bets on the other side.
Here are the five NFL betting lines that moved the most early in Week 12, and our opinions on the line moves. (We were 5-0 last week on NFL betting line moves we agreed or disagreed with.)
LINE MOVE: Chiefs -6 to -7 at Raiders
Agree/Disagree: AGREE
Next to New England, the Chiefs might be the hottest team in the NFL, winners of five straight and vying for top spot in the AFC West. KC is coming off a 24-20 win over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks, running for 190 yards against a tough Seattle defence.
Now they visit Oakland, a winless team that is very competitive on the road but has lost four of its five home games this year by 10-plus points. With a game against Denver on deck for the Chiefs, we might ordinarily fear the possibility of a letdown, but KC/Oakland is one of the fiercest rivalries in the NFL and we feel Andy Reid will have the Chiefs focused for this one.
LINE MOVE: Bills -3.5 to -4.5 vs Jets
Agree/Disagree: DISAGREE
What exactly have the Bills done to earn this type of NFL betting respect? There was some talk of the postseason in Buffalo this year when the Bills were 5-3, but they’ve since lost two in a row and will lose almost any tiebreakers with their horrible conference record.
Yes, Buffalo will have the benefit of nearly 10 days off since its loss to Miami on Thursday Night Football. But the Jets are coming off a bye week and showed a rare level of competence in their last outing, an upset win over the Steelers. Both defences are ranked in the top 10 in the NFL, and we expect a tight game, certainly not a comfortable Buffalo victory.
LINE MOVE: Packers -7.5 to -9.5 at Vikings
AGREE/DISAGREE: Disagree
Who doesn’t want a piece of the Packers these days, following back-to-back 50-point outings? Green Bay has made things look awfully easy the last two weeks, beating the Bears and Eagles by a combined total of 74 points. However, those two wins came at Lambeau Field, where the Pack is 5-0 this season. The road has been much different this year for the Cheeseheads, who have lost three times and needed a last-minute TD to beat Miami by 3.
Minny is a division rival, ranks 8th against the pass, hasn’t lost by 10-plus points in a month and is looking to avenge a 42-10 beatdown from Green Bay earlier this year. If this line gets over 10, we love the Vikings in this one even more.
LINE MOVE: Texans from pick ’em to -2 vs Bengals
AGREE/DISAGREE: Disagree
This one puzzles us as well. Houston won its first game with Ryan Mallett at QB, grounding the Browns 23-7 last week in Cleveland, when Mallett was an ordinary 20-for-30 for 211 yards, two TDs and an INT. The Texans ran 54 times for 213 yards in that one.
Now Houston takes on a first-place Cincy team that held the Saints to 75 rushing yards last week to win comfortably in New Orleans, a very difficult feat.
LINE MOVE: Rams from +6 to +4 at Chargers
AGREE/DISAGREE: Agree
It appears the Rams are finally getting some respect. This is a team that has beaten the Seahawks, 49ers and Broncos this season, yet had been underdogs of a touchdown or more in each of its last four games.
San Diego is 0-5 against the spread in its last five outings, including a 13-6 win last week over Oakland when the Chargers scored a TD in the opening minute, then mustered just a pair of field goals the rest of the way. We still don’t feel like we can trust San Diego to win a game by margin these days.