Winning in basketball requires commitment, discipline and effort. So does winning in basketball betting. (Photo credit: dannyb / Foter / CC BY)
Hockey is known as Canada’s passion, but let’s not forget basketball was created by a good ol’ Canadian boy as well.
There’s a lot to keep in mind when doing basketball betting. Luckily for you, we’ve narrowed it down to the 5 things we feel are most important to remember if you hope to win money this basketball betting season.
1. Don’t bet bad numbers
Although basketball point spreads can be beaten, it’s a lot harder to turn a profit when you’re taking the worst of the number.
Getting the worst of the number means betting on a game at a worse point spread or total than you could have got earlier.
It’s not a good idea to bet on a team that opened as a 3-point favourite but is now a 5-point favourite, since a lot of the value on that team is likely lost. The same goes with totals, where the over/under has moved two or three points from the opening line.
An extra point on the spread or a couple extra points on the total might not seem like a lot, but betting bad numbers will only hurt your long-term winning percentage.
2. Line shop and have multiple outs
Just like you shouldn’t bet bad numbers, it’s always good to get the best number.
The way to do that is to have accounts at several different sportsbooks, since sportsbooks often differ in the point spreads and totals that they are offering.
Pinnacle Sports’ reduced juice structure might allow you to get a cheap extra half-point here or there, while Sports Interaction and Bodog are opinionated books that often offer an extra half-point on the underdogs or the over/under.
3. Limit your parlays and teasers
Parlays are almost never a good idea.
They require you to win two or more bets and not lose any in order to get paid, which stacks the odds against you that much more (just like Proline).
The only case that we might recommend betting parlays is where the side and total are co-related, like if you believe the only way the Trail Blazers cover the spread is if it’s a high-scoring game (you would parlay the Trail Blazers and the over, in this example). Teasers, meanwhile, are sometimes a valuable tool in football if you can cross key numbers, but we don’t recommend using them in basketball.
A typical teaser gives you four extra points on a total or spread, which isn’t that much added value when you consider that teams often score 100 points or more in a game.
4. Stay disciplined
This is a key to betting in any sport, but perhaps more so in basketball.
Why? Because no other sport features as many infuriating “bad beats” as basketball.
So many of these games come down to the final minute where a missed free throw or a “meaningless” three-point buzzer beater will turn your winner into a loser.
It’s important to maintain your discipline and composure when these bad beats happen, rather than throwing the remote through your TV and doubling up the size of your next bet.
Just remember that bad beats are a part of basketball betting, but they tend to even out as you’ll sometimes benefit from a lucky shot as well.
5. Do your research
There’s more to picking winners in basketball than just looking at the teams’ overall win/loss records.
For example, perhaps one of the biggest disparities you’ll find in basketball is teams’ records at home and on the road. It’s not uncommon to find the top teams with a .500 record away from home.
Looking at the recent schedules of teams is also key, particularly travel and back-to-back games. Basketball players shoot with their legs, so it makes sense that their jumpshot won’t be quite as accurate when they’re playing their third game in four nights.
One of our favourite handicapping angles is betting against teams playing their second of back-to-back games in Utah or Denver, since the high altitude fatigues those legs even quicker.
One other critical statistic to consider when handicapping basketball is free-throw percentage, You don’t want to be laying points with a favourite that can’t close out games when it’s put on the line in the final minute. This is even more important in college basketball betting.