Floyd Mayweather was once considered a -2500 favourite to beat Conor McGregor if they ever fought in a boxing ring. Now you can bet on Mayweather at a fraction of that price. (Photo credit: Hase don via Foter.com / CC BY-NC-SA)
“Pros versus Joes” is a long-time sports betting phrase for when the sharp (Pro) handicappers are predominantly on one side of a game while the betting public (Joes) is on the other.
You don’t see cases of Pros versus Joes as much these days as you used to. Thanks to blogs, social media and other research they can do over the Internet, the average public bettor is generally much more informed. Advanced analytics and other metrics make it easier for Joe to see past win-loss records, make them aware of the impact (or lack thereof) that injuries may have, or find other value in the line they might have missed in the past.
However, this Friday’s Mayweather/McGregor boxing match may be the most obvious case of Pros versus Joes that I can remember.
Public Loves McGregor
Whether it’s due to a lack of an ability to traditionally handicap the bout (since one is a boxer and one is an MMA fighter), the thinking that McGregor will benefit from the usage of 8-ounce gloves (not the traditional 10 ouncers), or simply the public drooling at a chance at a big plus-money payday with the underdog, there’s a clear divide when it comes to betting Mayweather/McGregor.
McGregor clear favourite in Toronto as tour with Mayweather stops in Canada https://t.co/MCMCMQiiir
— AM640 (@am640) July 13, 2017
Even though McGregor has never boxed professionally and is going up against a man who may eventually go down in history as the greatest fighter of all time, the average Joes can’t get enough of betting McGregor – at any price. That’s music to the ears of the Pros, who have either bet Mayweather already or are waiting for the line to drop even more.
Odds On Mayweather Have Plummeted
Back in mid-February, before the fight was officially scheduled, Mayweather was listed as a -2500 favourite and McGregor was a +1100 underdog on hypothetical betting lines posted by the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. A few weeks ago, before an English bettor wagered 100,000 pounds on McGregor, the Irishman still paid in the range of +550.
Tuesday afternoon at Sports Interaction, you could bet Mayweather at the discount price of -400, while the potential return on McGregor had been slashed to +290.
Veteran oddsmakers are puzzled by all the love for McGregor. Legendary Vegas bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro said he believes the true line should be 50:1 and that the current odds are “absurd.” William Hill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said, “If there were no market already established, I would’ve opened Mayweather at 100:1.”
These bookmakers didn’t suddenly get stupid. They understand probability and they can handicap events better than any of the average Joes – especially events of this magnitude, with betting volume on Mayweather/McGregor in Nevada projected to double the previous boxing record of $50 million, set two years ago in the Mayweather/Manny Pacquiao fight. Rest assured, they’ve devoted more than a few minutes to deciding what the line should be before posting it.
If oddsmakers opened the line at Mayweather -2500 (and say they would have opened it at quadruple the price if they didn’t already know the money would come flooding in on the underdog), we’re getting extreme value with Mayweather at the current -400 price.
Sharp Money Will Come On Mayweather
Not that you’re guaranteed to get -400 on Mayweather on fight day, by the way. Rufus Paebody, a pro bettor and Yale economics major, told ESPN that sharp money will come flying in on Mayweather once they’ve decided the line won’t get any better. Once that starts to happen, we might see the sportsbooks adjust back the other way if they need to balance their handle.
The @southpointlv took a $880,000 bet today on Floyd Mayweather to beat Conor McGregor at -550 odds. The bet would net $160,000.
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) August 11, 2017
But if you don’t have any allegiances or bias to either fighter and are just looking to bet this bout from a casual and recreational perspective, I’d strongly, strongly consider backing Mayweather at these discounted odds. It’s not fun having to lay $4 to win $1 (you could always parlay a Mayweather bet with something else so you don’t have to risk so much), but it looks like the way to go here.
Those glitzy Vegas casinos are huge for a reason. And when it comes to betting on a game or event that I don’t have that much personal expertise about, I’d always rather side with the Pros than the Joes.
Mayweather/McGregor Betting Odds 2017
Odds To Win
- Mayweather -400
- McGregor +290
- Draw +3500
Total Rounds
- Over 9.5 +127
- Under 9.5 -159
Method Of Victory
- Mayweather By Decision/Technical Decision: +240
- Mayweather By Knockout/Technical Knockout/Disqualification: -125
- McGregor By Decision/Technical Decision: +1200
- McGregor By Knockout/Technical Knockout/Disqualification: +275
- Draw/Technical Draw: +3000
Will Either Corner Throw In The Towel?
- Yes: +378
- No: -714
Will Either Fighter Be Warned For A Low Blow?
- Yes: +141
- No: -197
Will McGregor Kick Mayweather During Fight?
- Yes: +575
- No: -1250
Will Either Fighter Win Inside The First Minute?
- Yes: +606
Will The Fight Go The Distance?
- Yes: +190
- No: -275
All odds subject to change. Visit www.SportsInteraction.com for updated odds and more betting options.