It was a frustrating 1-2 night for our free NHL picks on Tuesday. Tampa Bay scored late in regulation time to ruin our bet on the Lightning Team Total Under 2.5, and the Rangers lost as expected in Anaheim but still managed to go Over their team total as well.
Fortunately, the Over in Dallas/Florida easily cashed as the Stars scored 6 goals all by themselves. Overall, these free NHL picks are now 16-10 on the season, and since most of them have been at even money or better, you’re comfortably in the black if you’ve been tailing along.
The NHL concludes its first half of the regular season tonight as every team but the LA Kings are in action on the final night before the all-star break. Betting on games the day before the break is always a bit tricky since you don’t know which players may have mentally checked out already on vacation, but there are a few spots we like on tonight’s board.
Don’t forget to check out our live odds page if you’re interested in seeing tonight’s NHL betting lines. Otherwise, here’s what we like for tonight:
NHL Betting Picks For Tonight
Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers
We typically rely most heavily on statistics, but this is admittedly a bit more of a gut-feel play. Tampa had been struggling for a few games going into Nashville on Tuesday, with even a 2-0 win at Chicago the previous night looking like a real struggle. But the Lightning rallied late in the third to tie a tough Predators team 3-3, then won in OT and should feel really good going into Philadelphia tonight.
While the Flyers have won 5 straight at home and 8 of 9 overall, they haven’t exactly been blowing teams away lately with their offence. Philadelphia has scored just 9 goals over its last 5 outings, needing overtime to pull out 3 of its last 4 victories.
There are some stats to back up this bet as well. Tampa’s been one of the better first period teams in the NHL this season, especially on the road where the Bolts are outscoring opponents by an average of 1.08-0.80 in opening frames. Philly’s been decent in first periods at home (0.84-0.76), but we like Tampa’s potential mindset coming into this one enough to pull the trigger on a first period wager.
NHL Betting Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning First Period Moneyline -109
New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights
Their recent win-loss record might not show it, but the Islanders are a hot mess right now. Their only regulation time wins since Christmas have come against two teams playing their first games following a bye week (the Rangers and Blackhawks), and New York has surrendered at least 3 goals in 11 of its last 12 games.
Vegas continues to defy the odds, going 5-1-2 in its last 8 games and owning a 19-2-2 record at home on the year. While the Knights’ defence has improved lately, the offence that averages 3.43 goals per game this year has been the biggest key. Those goal-scoring numbers are even more impressive on home ice (3.70 per game) and we expect the Golden Knights to take advantage of this soft Islanders defence with regularity here.
Unfortunately, the Over/Under in this game opened at 7 (it’s since been bet down) and the Knights are favoured by more than they have been all year against anyone. Instead, in what should be a high-scoring affair, we’ll simply ask Vegas to carry a lead into the first intermission. The Knights have nearly doubled up their opponents in first periods at home this year, while the Isles have been outscored by nearly half a goal per game on the road.
NHL Betting Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights First Period Puck Line (-0.5) +134
New York Rangers at San Jose Sharks
Both of these teams have been playing high-scoring first periods lately. New York and Anaheim combined for 6 goals in the opening frame Tuesday night, while the Sharks trailed Winnipeg 3-1 after 20 minutes Tuesday and also played Arizona to a 3-3 draw in the first period a couple of weeks ago.
Fast offensive starts are nothing new to any of these teams, however. New York averages better than a goal per game in first periods this year on the road despite the fact that the Rangers have won just twice in regulation time away from home all season. San Jose is giving up 1.17 goals per first period at home this year, a drastic difference from the 0.74 and 0.48 goals they allow on average in the other two periods respectively.
Things could get ugly in this game later for New York, which is playing its 8th game in its last 13 days. A fast start is critical for the Blueshirts, and we expect them to come out with some offensive urgency to capitalize on San Jose’s early defensive woes. At the same time, the Sharks have a good chance at enjoying some early success against a Rangers defence that has allowed at least 3 goals in 6 of its last 7 outings.
NHL Betting Prediction: First Period Over 1.5 -103