Steven Stamkos and the Lightning have already scored 7-plus goals in 3 games this NHL season. (Photo credit: tsyp9 / Foter / CC BY-SA)
Identifying good over and under bets early in the season can pay big dividends in NHL betting.
While oddsmakers will quickly catch on to teams that are strong against the spread and increase the NHL betting lines, they aren’t as quick to adjust to teams that are consistently going over or under the total.
Here are 3 teams that have been great over bets this season, and 3 that are cashing under tickets with regularity. (Stats current going into Saturday, November 22 action)
Top 3 Over Teams
1. Lightning (14-8 over-under)
Think the Lightning is happy to have Steven Stamkos back? Led by its speedy sniper, Tampa ranks second in the league in offence with 3.5 goals per game. The Lightning has scored 7 goals in a game on three occasions already this season.
The Tampa defence ranks in the middle of the pack this year, but the Lightning is one of the few teams not to post a shutout so far. Scoring from both teams is a key to games going over, since teams don’t typically get 6 or more on their own that often.
Oddsmakers have been slow to react to Tampa’s over binge, lining most Lightning games at 5.5 goals. It’s interesting to note that two of the Lightning’s last three contests had totals of 6, and they still both went over.
2. Islanders (12-8)
The Islanders play exactly how you’d expect a team with loads of young offensive talent to play: score a pile of goals (third in the league, 3.2 goals per game) and allow a lot as well (2.8, 20th).
This is especially true of the Isles at home. New York has seen 7 of its first 8 games at Nassau Coliseum go over the total.
Betting the Islanders over the total was a gravy train at the start of the year, with 7 of New York’s first 9 going over. The Isles then went 5 in five straight games, but then rattled off 5 consecutive overs.
This team should continue to be worth a look for over bettors when they’re playing at home.
3. Canucks (11-7)
The Canucks have earned a reputation over the last few years as being a conservative, defensive team.
5 of their first 20 games had the total set at 5, so it doesn’t usually take much to put a Vancouver game over the number. The Canucks are 2-1-2 to the over with the total set at 5 this season.
Vancouver averages 3 goals per game for and 3 goals per game against. Add that up and it equals 6, so it makes sense the Canucks are going over totals of 5 and 5.5 more often than not.
Top 3 Under Teams
1. Predators (4-14 over-under)
At first look, Nashville’s offence might seen decent, ranking 11th in the league at 2.8 goals per game. But don’t forget, 9 of those came in one game against the Leafs.
The bigger reason the Predators have been such an under team this year is their suffocating defence, which ranks 2nd in the league at 2 goals against per game and 5th in shots against.
Nashville is an equal opportunist when it comes to its defensive style, boring both fans at home (1-6-2 under) and on the road (3-8).
2. Jets (6-14)
Winnipeg is a perfect under team. The Jets are totally inept offensively (2 goals per game, 29th in the league) but strong in their own end (2.1 goals against, 4th).
They’ve already played in nine games this season where three goals or less were scored, including back to back 1-0 victories to start November.
Oddsmakers have certainly noticed, lining Winnipeg’s last 6 games with totals of 5.
If your sportsbook offers alternate totals you might want to shoot for a big score by betting the Jets under 4 or 4.5 at some fatter odds.
3. Blackhawks (5-11)
Think Chicago Blackhawks and you think Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and a whole lot of offence.
But, despite averaging a league-high 37.1 shots per game this season, Chicago has struggled to put the puck in the net. The team ranks 13th in the NHL with 2.7 goals per game.
The Blackhawks are still their reliable selves in their own end, allowing 2.1 goals per game (3rd in the league).
Despite Chicago’s tendency to go under this year, oddsmakers continue to line its games with totals of 5.5. There’s a reason for that — as long as the Blackhawks continue to shoot the puck this much, the goals are eventually going to come. We see these numbers evening out as the season goes along.