When it comes to NFL point spreads, Aaron Rodgers might be the most meaningful player in the league.
You can argue that Tom Brady is the more accomplished quarterback, having won five Super Bowls while Rodgers has won just one.
But the Patriots have won in the past without the Golden Boy under center (last year, they went 3-1 while he was suspended). The Packers, meanwhile, looked completely lost on offence last week in Minnesota after Rodgers left the game in the first quarter with a broken collarbone.
So with everyone jumping off the Packers bandwagon following the news that Rodgers may miss the rest of the year, we’re not surprised to see Green Bay as a home underdog this week against New Orleans. But 6-point underdogs? That looks like an overreaction.
Is Rodgers Worth Two Touchdowns To The Spread?
What would the betting line be in this game if Rodgers were playing? New Orleans is traditionally pretty poor on the road and its offence is terrible, while Rodgers and the Packers’ exploits at Lambeau Field have been well documented. You have to believe Green Bay would be favoured by more than a touchdown.
For argument’s sake, let’s say the Packers were 7-point favourites in this game before the Rodgers injury. Now, they’re 6-point underdogs. (The line opened at Green Bay +4.5, but has been bet up to 6 by Tuesday morning.)
Is Rodgers seriously worth 13 points (or more) to the betting line? That’s the question we have to ask ourselves if we’re planning on betting on this contest.
Personally, we love betting on good teams when they’re counted out. Many times, the rest of the team’s players step up their intensity and focus, knowing that everyone needs to be just a bit better in order to overcome the injury to their star. And the extra point spread value that you can get from bettors overreacting to an injury cannot be ignored.
— Chris Barriere (@chrisbarriereTV) October 17, 2017
Whether a week of practice can help Brett Hundley improve on his 18-for-33, 157-yard, one-touchdown, three-interception performance last week in Minnesota remains to be seen. But he does benefit from playing at home, and the New Orleans defence he’ll face this week is a lot softer than that tough Vikings unit.
We’ll be monitoring this line closely throughout the week, and definitely pouncing on Green Bay if the point spread gets up to a full touchdown.
NFL Week 7 Betting Lines
Here are all the NFL betting lines for Week 7, courtesy of BetOnline.
For the latest lines, visit our live odds page.