Blowouts like this aren't as common in the NHL as they used to be.
It’s in our nature to always search for the big score.
Whether it’s impatience or laziness or simply wanting the adrenalin rush, we’d rather take our chances on the one big payday instead of playing it safe and trying to win a little bit.
That’s why those V+ and H+ hockey odds on Proline can be so damn appealing. But, in reality, those V+ and H+ bets are among the worst you can make.
In Proline hockey betting, the V+ and H+ bets mean that either the visitor (V) or home (H) team needs to win the game by more than one goal.
Problem is, wins by more than one goal just don’t happen that often in the NHL anymore. In order for the V+ and H+ bets to pay off, you’d need to get some pretty fat odds. And Proline just ain’t offering them.
In the 2011-12 NHL season, nearly half (47.7%) of games were decided by one goal, including shootouts. You might think the top teams typically win by more than a goal, but the regular season champion Vancouver Canucks saw 45 of their 82 games decided by one goal.
For the sake of simple math, let’s say you’re interested in betting on a .500 team, a team that wins as many games as it loses.
The odds of this team winning a game by more than one goal is roughly 25%. Remember, roughly half their games are already decided by one goal, leaving only 50% of their games that are decided by two goals or more. Then, split that 50% in half because a .500 team wins half of its games.
With an expected winning percentage of 25%, you’d need your bet to pay you 4:1 odds just to break even over the long run. But Proline hockey betting V+ and H+ odds are typically in the 2.50 to 2.70 range, which is around 3:2.
Instead of getting $400 on your $100 wager, which is the fair price on a V+ or H+ Proline hockey bet on a .500 team, Proline is offering you $150. You do the math.
Even online odds not good enough
Online sportsbooks offer better odds, but even they aren’t close to what they should be on -1.5 bets on the puck line (similar to the V+ and H+ Proline hockey bets).
The Anaheim Ducks were a short -110 favourite for a 2013 game at Calgary, which gave them approximately a 52% chance of winning (just a bit better than a .500 team).
Yet, the payout on them winning by more than a goal (-1.5 puck line bet) at Bet365 was +240. +240 odds convert to 12:5 odds, or a $240 payout on a $100 bet.
$240 return is obviously better than the $150 Proline generally offers for a similar bet, but it’s still a far cry from the $400 you’d generally need to break even over the long run.
Pick your spots
There will always be instances where the situation suggests it might be a blowout, and those are decent times to play the V+ and H+ Proline hockey bets, or the -1.5 puckline bets at offshore sportsbooks.
But, the simple math tells you, it’s not a good practice to get into. The crappy odds being offered in return just don’t make the V+ and H+ hockey bets worthwhile.