Proline Betting Odds Much Worse Than Slot Machines

Even slots in Ontario have to pay out at least 85%. (Photo credit: Jeff Kubina / Foter / CC BY-SA)


We always knew Proline betting odds were bad, but we didn’t fully comprehend how bad they are until reading a 2013 article in the Toronto Star.

The article, titled ‘OLG shut down NFL Pro-Line betting on Sunday’, described how the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation constantly monitors and limits wagers on games. In some cases, the OLG will close betting on games if too many players are betting on the same combination and make the OLG vulnerable to losing too much money.

This revelation was certainly an interesting one, though it didn’t necessarily surprise us.

What did surprise us was, later in the article, an OLG spokesperson stated that the OLG aims for roughly a 60 per cent payout. That structure allowed the OLG to make $1.7 billion from when it began offering sports betting in 1992 to when the article was written.

60 per cent payout! How bad is that?

Well, if the simple math of getting 60 cents back on every dollar you bet doesn’t paint a clear enough picture, let’s compare that payout percentage to those offered by other lottery and casino games:

  • Scratch tickets: According to the OLG website, those fun little scratch tickets have payout percentages ranging from approximately 60-70%.
    Lotto Max, Lottario, Lotto 6/49: These draws, which routinely offer six-figure jackpots or higher, pay out 48-50% of the money they take in.
  • Slots: Those machines often referred to as the “one-armed bandits” have an OLG-mandated minimum payout of 85%, with some offering payout percentages of 95% or higher.
  • Roulette: Widely known as one of the games with the worst odds in the casino, roulette still pays out 94% of the money it takes in.
  • Standard craps: You’ll eventually lose your shirt playing craps, but the 89% payout will allow you to at least roll those dice for a little while.
  • Blackjack: Players who follow basic strategy (using their brains, in other words, when deciding when to hit and when to stay) can benefit from 98-99% payout, since blackjack has the most player-friendly odds in the casino.
  • Sportsbooks: Following the standard -110 juice structure on spreads and totals, sportsbooks offer a payout percentage of approximately 95% to their players. Unlike lottery tickets, roulette and slots, however, players’ skill and abilities can allow them to tilt the odds in their favour.

So, to summarize, the only lottery or game structure out there with worse odds than Proline is the big draws. At least with the draws, you have a chance (albeit a slim one) of winning a massive amount of money that will change your life forever.

You’d be better off — MUCH better off, in fact — going to your local casino and putting $20 into a slot machine every night than putting $20 on a Proline ticket. Most people are resigned to losing whatever money they put into a slot machine, but at least slots allow you to at least have a little fun before taking your money.

And if you are one of those people who say you actually make money playing Proline, we’ve got one of two things to say to you:

A. You’re delusional, for the same reasons that there are no professional roulette or craps players. These odds are impossible to overcome over the long term.

OR:

B. Imagine how much more you would be making if you were making your bets in a system that returns 95% of money wagered than in a system that returns just 60%.

And it’s important to note that several online sportsbooks, like Pinnacle Sports, offer -105 odds structures instead of -110. Having to lay $105 to win $100, instead of $110, bumps that payout percentage up from 95% to 97.5%.

Even if you are bad at picking winners in sports, having the chance to get 95% or more of your money back on every bet will allow you to bet more games before having to reach into your wallet once again.

With a 95% return, you could start with $1,000 and make 1,000 $20 bets before having to reload your sportsbook account.

With the 60% return offered by Proline, that same $1,000 would last you about 125 $20 tickets before you have to pull out some more cash.