Placing a baseball live bet requires quick decisions and a feel for the game.
There isn’t usually great value in the baseball live bet props, such as ‘Will the next hit be a single, double or triple/home run?’ But you can use baseball live betting to take advantage of in-game odds that are often quite more lucrative than before the game began.
Bet365 is a great sportsbook to use for baseball live betting, since they constantly update the odds after every pitch. If you want the absolute best baseball live bet odds instead and don’t mind only being able to place bets between innings or during a pitching change, try Pinnacle instead.
Before you take a swing at MLB live betting, make sure you check out these 7 important baseball live bet tips.
1. Who’s coming up?
What a game, I love playoffs. Meat of the order for the Jays pic.twitter.com/8C0vKVpae3
— Francisco Ramirez (@CiscoRamz) October 5, 2016
Baseball live betting is unique because, unlike hockey, basketball or even football, only one team can score at any given time.
A good time to take a team in baseball live betting is when its heavy hitters are due up in the next half-inning, or when the opponents’ weakest hitters are due up in the next half-inning.
You’ll want to avoid live betting on teams when the bottom of their order is due up, or when the meat of the opponent’s order is coming up next.
2. What’s the status of the starters?
This is what a tired pitcher looks like pic.twitter.com/L81ywQwzwd
— Internet Contrarian (@bogcommenter) October 5, 2014
Pitch counts of the starting pitchers are definitely something you should pay attention to when doing baseball live betting.
If a team’s ace is nearing the 100-pitch mark, it could be a good opportunity to bet against them. Maybe they’ll give up a couple of runs as they’re getting tired, or they’ll be pulled soon and the relief pitcher might not be nearly as good.
Either way, the baseball live betting odds might not be taking that into account.
3. What are the players’ and teams’ tendencies?
Determining a pattern in which players and teams tend to perform can help you with baseball live betting.
A lot of starting pitchers are vulnerable in the first inning as they adjust to the pitching mound and get their adrenalin flowing. Make sure you’re aware if the starting pitcher you are betting on or against is likely to start slow or not.
Teams can also develop a tendency for either starting slow or coming fast out of the gate. If you think the team you want to bet on will take a few innings to get going, it makes more sense to take them on baseball live betting odds than before the game begins.
4. What’s the matchup history?
There are stats for practically everything in baseball betting. One of the most important ones to consider when making a baseball live bet is the pitcher vs. batter matchup histories.
You don’t want to take a team in baseball live betting if the batters they have coming up next inning are a combined 2-for-30 lifetime against that pitcher. But if one or more of the batters has good lifetime numbers against the pitcher, it’s a good time to strike on the baseball live betting odds.
Websites like DailyBaseballData and Rotowire have pages where you can find head-to-head stats for today’s games. This will enable you to determine which hitters struggle against certain pitchers and which ones dominate.
5. How is the game trending?
So much of baseball is bounces and luck. Sometimes, the boxscore doesn’t accurately reflect what’s going on in the game.
By watching the game, you can get a feel for how the game is trending. If a pitcher keeps giving up line drives but they’re being hit right at the defenders, you can bet against him on the baseball live betting odds. That luck won’t last forever.
Same thing applies for a pitcher who has really good stuff but gave up a couple broken-bat hits and a bloop double early in the game. He might be down a couple runs early but if you feel he’s in a zone, you can get some generous baseball live betting odds.
6. Who’s got the stronger bullpen?
Baseball betting odds are mostly based on starting pitching, but everything changes once the bullpens come into play.
Once the starters are gone, try to anticipate which relievers will be used and see whether the baseball live betting odds are taking this into account.
DailyBaseballData has a great webpage to use for determining which relievers are fresh for today’s games and which ones aren’t available because they’ve pitched too much recently.
7. What are the baseball live bet odds?
Just like when you’re making any other type of bet, the biggest factor when you place a baseball live bet has to be the odds.
Regardless of who you think will win, it’s always a smart bet to take the team whose odds imply a lower probability than you think the actual probability is.
If you think the Blue Jays have a 10% chance of coming back from a two-run deficit in the ninth inning but the odds are +2000 (implying a 5% chance), it’s a bet you should make every time.
In baseball live betting, there will almost always be more value in betting on the team that is losing, since oddsmakers know most people want to bet on the team that is winning.