(Photo credit: Keith Allison / Foter / CC BY-SA)
There’s more to baseball betting than batting averages and ERAs.
Yet, that’s what most people turn to when making their baseball picks.
Here are three myths about baseball betting that you want to make sure you don’t believe:
1. You should always bet on the better starting pitcher
While starting pitching is the primary factor oddsmakers consider when setting the MLB odds, it is certainly not the only thing.
Starters do not go as deep into games as they used to, often leaving the result of a game up to the bullpens.
Knowing which teams have the better relievers and which relievers are available for each game is important to consider.
If you are only interested in betting on the starting pitcher, you might want to consider first-half baseball betting instead.
2. Heavy favourites are a safe bet
Consistently picking heavy favourites (-200 or greater) on the MLB odds is a quick way to the poorhouse.
In order to profit from betting teams at a -200 moneyline, you need to win at least 66 per cent of your bets.
That’s asking a lot, considering that only 18 teams have had a single-season winning percentage of .600 or better since the turn of the century.
It’s okay to bet on heavy favourites once in a while, but you might also want to consider alternate ways to betting on big favourites, such as run lines and team totals.
3. You only need to rely on basic statistics
There are so many statistics you can look at in baseball betting that you can often find numbers that will support any of your baseball picks.
Knowing which numbers are the most important to consider and which ones are less relevant is key.
Baseball, more than any sport, is a game of confidence, so knowing which players are struggling and which ones are hot is important.
So too is understanding sabermetrics, which uses advanced stats to determine what players’ stats should be and predict regression to the mean before it happens. Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a great one for both pitchers and hitters because it suggests whether a player has been lucky or unlucky during the season, causing their stats to be either inflated or deflated.
Knowing how to make winning baseball picks isn’t as important as getting the best MLB odds on every wager. We recommend Pinnacle Sports, 5Dimes and Bodog as the best sportsbooks to use for baseball betting because they offer the best MLB odds.