The Cowboys are a dangerous team with Tony Romo at QB. (Photo credit: Seatacular / Foter.com / CC BY-NC-SA)
The 10-0 Carolina Panthers are an underdog at the 3-7 Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day.
Wait, what?
Actually, that’s only kind of true. The Panthers opened as 1.5 point underdogs to Dallas, but the game had moved to pick ‘em by Tuesday afternoon on most sportsbooks’ NFL betting odds.
It seems too easy, doesn’t it?
If you take the Panthers, you might feel like you’re stealing money. How could an undefeated team be an underdog against a team that just snapped a 7-game losing streak?
Or maybe you’re thinking, “TRAPPPPPPP!,” which is a popular refrain when we see NFL betting lines like this. The line doesn’t make sense at first glance, so Vegas must know something, right?
Maybe not. Maybe this line actually makes sense. Maybe each team literally has a 50/50 chance of winning. Or maybe Dallas even has a better chance of winning this game than the Panthers do.
Here are three reasons why we like Dallas this week:
Cowboys have Home Field Advantage
First, let’s account for the home field advantage. Dallas hasn’t actually historically had much of a home field advantage in recent years, especially as a favourite, but let’s just apply the standard 3 points.
Subtract those 3 points from Dallas, since they have home field, and it suggests Carolina would be favoured by 3 points on a neutral field. It also means the Panthers would be a 6-point favourite over Dallas if this game were in Carolina.
All of a sudden, this line doesn’t seem that weird! After all, the Panthers were favoured by only 7 points last week at home to Washington. They were a 3-point favourite at home to Philly earlier this year, a 5-point favourite against the Colts and a 2-point home underdog to the Packers.
Cowboys are 3-0 with Romo
With Tony Romo in the lineup all of last season, the Cowboys were a bad call away from possibly advancing to the NFC Championship Game (remember that Dez Bryant catch in Lambeau that wasn’t ruled a catch?)
Dallas has since lost DeMarco Murray, but the Cowboys are still 3-0 with Romo under center this year. Romo was a bit rusty last week in his return, but he still threw a pair of touchdowns. And Dallas just plays with a lot more confidence with Romo taking the snaps.
Cowboys are Motivated
There’s another reason Dallas isn’t a typical 3-7 team. These Cowboys have hope. They’re only 2 games out of first place in the godawful NFC East, where an 8-8 record might be enough to win it. Do you honestly think the Giants (5-5), Eagles (4-6) or Redskins (4-6) are going to pull away down the stretch?
So though the Cowboys have the same record as the 49ers, Lions and Ravens, they won’t be mailing it in in this one. In fact, they’ll probably be playing with much more desperation than the 10-0 Panthers, who have a 2-game cushion on top spot in the NFC.
Take Dallas +2 at Bodog
If it’s not clear by now, we really like the Cowboys in this game.
And what’s even better is that we can get them at +2 at Bodog!
The fact that a recreational sportsbook like Bodog is posting +2 shows that the public is betting Carolina and Bodog is increasing the odds to take advantage of that.