Just because you got dealt a blackjack doesn't make it any more or less likely that you'll get another one the next hand. (Photo credit: Images_of_Money / Foter / CC BY)
A few years ago, I thought I had come up with a great system for winning at Blackjack.
Blackjack, if played properly, is as close to a 50-50 proposition as you’ll find at the casino. In a six-deck shoe, the house carries only a 0.64 % advantage over the player. In an eight-deck shoe, the house has a 0.66 % edge.
So, I reasoned, if your chances of winning a hand are pretty much 50%, what are the odds that you’ll ever lose more than 6 or 7 hands in a row?
With that mindset, I decided to increase my bet after every loss, thinking that when I finally won a hand, it would make up for most of my previous lost hands in a series.
I would start with a $5 bet, then increase to $10 if I lost, then $15 (which would cover the previous two losses if I won) and then $20 (which would make up for all but $10 of my losses in the series). If I lost the $20 bet, I would go back down to $10 and continue until I won a hand, then start over at $5.
Of course, this isn’t a radical and innovative strategy. Many people use a progressive betting system like this when playing Blackjack.
But I thought I was onto something, especially when I made a healthy profit each of my first 10 times using this strategy.
But the odds eventually caught up to me. I learned that you can get away with this system for a while, but eventually you’ll hit an unbelievably cold streak that will wipe away all your profits and even put you in a big hole.
Even in a game that is 50-50, it’s certainly not impossible to lose five, 10, even 15 times in a row.
The ‘due’ theory
The human psyche makes us think we’re “due”. If you flip a coin five times and it comes up heads each time, you naturally think it’s more likely that the next flip will result in tails.
Simple math doesn’t work that way, however. Each coin flip, or each hand of Blackjack, or each game you bet on, is its own independent event with approximately a 50-50 chance of winning or losing.
It’s why you simply cannot chase your losses, or press your winnings, if you’re trying to make money in sports betting. No matter how many losses or wins you have had in a row, it doesn’t make it any more or less likely that you’ll win your next bet.
It’s all about understanding probability
The only way to make money long-term as a sports bettor is to use a flat betting system, betting each game at the same amount. If you’re good (54 per cent or higher against the spread), you’ll eventually win more than you lose – no matter what cold streaks you will encounter from time to time.
Don’t let one bad run, and the human mentality that you’re “due”, wipe you out.