Week 12 CFL Picks: A Pair Of Western Rematches On Deck

Unless you’re a diehard fan of the Canadian Football League, you’re probably ready to push CFL betting to the back burner.

The NFL kicks off its 2017 season Thursday night, with the Patriots favoured by as many as 9 points at home to the Chiefs. That’ll be followed by the first NFL Sunday of 2017, and NCAA college football is already underway as well.

Fortunately, we won’t need to sacrifice watching the NFL this weekend if we want to watch the Canadian brand. The CFL is doing the smart thing this year, scheduling a tripleheader for Saturday in order to avoid going up against the NFL on Sunday. The other CFL game in Week 12 will take place Friday night, when there is just a handful of college games on the board, none of them marquee machups.

Even if the CFL games are scheduled at the same time as NFL contests, you don’t want to forget about betting on the CFL. Oddsmakers are now paying less attention to it and putting more effort into setting the NFL and NCAA lines every week, which can open up some edges for us.

We’ve already seen that the past 2 weeks, during which our free CFL betting picks have gone 6-1 – including a 3-0 sweep last week – to get us to 13-9 on the season. Let’s try to keep that roll going with these Week 12 CFL betting picks.

 

Week 12 CFL Betting Lines

One of the fun quirks about the CFL is that we sometimes see rematches from the following week. And we get two of those here in Week 12.

The first rematch sees the Blue Bombers looking to avenge a lopsided loss last Sunday in Saskatchewan. The Roughriders were 2.5-point favourites in that contest, but Winnipeg is a 2.5-point home favourite this Saturday.

That 5-point adjustment for home field advantage is a little less than the usual 6 (home field is generally worth 3 points on a football point spread, so Saskatchewan would theoretically have been a +0.5 point underdog last week on a neutral field and +3.5 if it were in Winnipeg.)

The books have also made a 5-point adjustment in the Stampeders/Eskimos rematch as the venue shifts from Calgary to Edmonton. The Eskies were blown out at McMahon on Labour Day Monday, their third straight loss after starting 7-0, and are now 6-point home dogs against the 8-1-1 Stamps.

In the other games in Week 12, the B.C. Lions return from their bye week as 7.5-point home favourites over the visiting Montreal Alouettes on Friday night, and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats are 12-point dogs in Ottawa as they look to build on their first win of the season.

 

Week 12 CFL Betting Picks

1. Alouettes at Lions Betting Pick


It’s really difficult to like either team in this matchup.

Montreal has lost three straight games, five of six and seven of nine, and the Als have allowed 32 points or more in four of their last five games.

But even though B.C. is coming off a bye week, the Lions have also lost three straight and four of five, with their defence getting cashed for 31+ in four of those five outings. They’ve also made the drastic move of benching starting QB Jonathon Jennings in favour of veteran Travis Lulay.

There’s no question who the better team is in this matchup, however. We’ll give the Lions a slight edge because of the bye and their home field here, but can’t lay over a touchdown with this team right now. Instead, we’ll use a teaser to move the Leos down to the range where simply winning the game should be good enough.

Pick: Lions -1 (first leg of 6.5-point teaser)

2. Roughriders at Blue Bombers Betting Pick


The Bombers saw their five-game winning streak snapped in embarrassing fashion Sunday in Saskatchewan, where the Roughies raced out to an early 34-13 lead and never looked back.

But while we want to play Winnipeg here, especially at home, we aren’t in a hurry to get in front of the Saskatchewan train. The Roughriders enter this one on a three-game winning streak, and their offence has scored 37 points or more in four of their last five contests.

Winnipeg should score points here as well. The Bombers had put up 33+ points in seven consecutive outings before last week, and they know they’ll need to score often to keep up with what is a surprisingly potent Green Rider attack.

The potential for an improved effort from the Winnipeg defence makes us reluctant to play the Over 60, so let’s tease this total down to a more comfortable number.

Pick: Over 53.5 (second leg of 2-game, 6.5-point teaser, which pays -110 odds at Pinnacle)

3. Ticats At RedBlacks Betting Pick


The Tabbies got off the schneid last week with a big effort against their Ontario rivals, the Argonauts, on Labour Day Monday. It was Hamilton’s first game under new head coach June Jones, and teams with brand new coaches usually fare pretty well in those initial outings.

But can Hamilton match that intensity here against a red-hot Ottawa team? We’re not so sure. The RedBlacks are coming off a 32-4 pounding of Montreal last Thursday (meaning they’ve had three extra days to prepare for this game), and they’ve held opponents to 46 points in their last three games combined.

Prior to the win over the punchless Argos, Hamilton had given up 33 points or more in four straight games and six of seven. Let’s look for that trend to continue here as Ottawa continues to push its way back up the Eastern standings.

Pick: RedBlacks Team Total Over (no line posted as of yet, but we expect it to be around 33 since Ottawa is a 12-point favourite and the Over/Under is 54)

4. Stampeders at Eskimos Betting Pick


Just like in the Saskatchewan/Winnipeg game this week, our initial instinct is to back the team that lost badly on Labour Day weekend.

But the Eskimos are a real mess right now. That 7-0 start they enjoyed looks like a total mirage, and they were exposed Monday against a Stampeders squad that has now covered the spread in 10 of its last 13 meetings with Edmonton.

Edmonton’s big problem right now is defence. The Esks have given up 126 points in their last three games, and their offence simply hasn’t been able to overcome it.

In order to have a chance here, Edmonton needs this to be a low-scoring ballgame. Calgary has held its last six opponents to 24 points or less, playing at an elite level on the defensive side of the ball.

After the first meeting between these teams snuck over the total, let’s look for the Eskimos defence to play with some pride here and for this to be a lower-scoring game than many might expect.

Pick: Under 56.5 -110 at Sports Interaction