The 2018 CFL betting season got off to a nice start for us last week with a comfortable winner on the RedBlacks -7.5 at Montreal.
Ottawa jumped out to a big lead in that game before Montreal had a chance late to backdoor the spread, but the Alouettes’ offense rarely threatened throughout the game and the outcome was never really in doubt.
In Week 5, we’ll look to build on that momentum with a pair of wagers. Instead of going with a simple point spread or Over/Under play, we’re going a bit more advanced with a teaser and a Team Total.
Team totals are simple enough to understand (it’s like Over/Under, but for one team’s point total only), but if you don’t understand teasers, we recommend checking out our article on teaser strategy so you know what we’re talking about.
Alright, let’s kick off our Week 5 CFL betting picks!
Stampeders at RedBlacks
There are two situations in particular that we love to bet on the Stampeders: when Calgary is coming off a bye week and when the Stamps are a short favourite. We get both of them here as Calgary travels to Ottawa after enjoying a week off, and the Stampeders were laying just 3 points in this matchup as of Tuesday morning.
Problem is, we like this Ottawa team as well. The RedBlacks answered the bell nicely last week with a dominant performance in Montreal, making up for a 24-14 loss in Calgary the previous week. Ottawa’s defence has been solid for a long time and we think it keeps the RedBlacks in this game also.
Expecting a low-scoring game, we lean Under the 54.5 points in this one. But out of respect for Calgary’s track record off a bye week (9-3-2 against the spread in its last 14), we’ll bet the RedBlacks to go Under their team total instead. Oddsmakers hadn’t posted one as of Tuesday, but with the Stamps as a 3-point favourite and the Over/Under at 54.5, expect the Ottawa Team Total to be around 25.5 or so.
Argonauts at Eskimos
One of the many things that makes the CFL unique is how it schedules teams to play each other in back-to-back weeks. It always sets up a nice revenge spot for the team that lost the previous week’s meeting, so it’s only natural to want to back the Eskimos at home after the Argos beat them on a late touchdown last weekend in Toronto.
But the point spread here (Eskimos -7) is extremely high for an Edmonton team that simply doesn’t deserve to be favoured in this range. Even though the Argos have been very bad on the road for a while (4-12 ATS last 16) and have been badly outgained in their last 2 games, we don’t have confidence in Edmonton’s ability to pull away and win comfortably. The Eskimos have dominated the yardage counts in three of their four games this season, yet enter this one with a 2-2 record because they consistently shoot themselves in the foot.
Fortunately, betting Edmonton in a teaser enables us to simply need the Eskimos to win this game, regardless of the spread. We certainly expect them to do that, so we’re making the Eskimos -1 the first leg of a two-team, 6.5-point teaser at 5Dimes (we’ll explain why 5Dimes later.)
Blue Bombers at Lions
Here’s another revenge situation for the home team as the Lions look to bounce back from a humiliating 41-19 loss at Winnipeg on Saturday.
However, wanting to avenge a bad loss is one thing, being able to do it is another. B.C. is routinely getting gashed by the opposition (allowing 41 points in each of the last two weeks) and we aren’t convinced they can suddenly slow down a Winnipeg attack that regularly scores in the high 20s and low 30s.
With the Bombers 18-5 against the spread in their last 23 on the road and the Lions 2-8 against the number in their last 10 overall, we’ll take the extra value on Winnipeg that we’re expecting to find as the betting public looks to back B.C. in a revenge spot. No point spread had been posted as of Tuesday, but we’re hopeful of seeing the Lions as a short favourite here. If that’s the case, using Winnipeg in a 6.5-point teaser will enable us to move the Bombers past the key number of 7.
We can’t officially take Winnipeg here without a betting line, so we’ll update this article once the odds are released. Fortunately, 5Dimes allows you to bet open teasers (leaving a spot open for a bet that you place later), which is why we recommended betting the Eskimos -1 at 5Dimes.
UPDATE: The Lions are 4-point underdogs in this game, so we’re no longer interested in teasing the Blue Bombers. We also want no part of B.C. in this game, so we’ll just be cheering for the Eskimos to cover the first leg of our open teaser to give us a head start on next week.