Josh Donaldson slugged his way to the American League MVP award last year, and is one of the top contenders for this year's award as well. (Photo credit: apardavila via DesignHunt / CC BY)
Just like last year, the 2016 American League MVP odds are led by Angels outfielder Mike Trout and Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson.
Canadian sportsbook Sports Interaction lists Trout at +275 (you could win $275 per $100 wagered) to win the American League MVP award, and Donaldson is a close second at +325 odds.
The next closest on the AL MVP odds are the Orioles’ Manny Machado, David Ortiz of the Red Sox, Astros’ Jose Altuve and the Mariners’ Robinson Cano, all of whom pay in the 6:1 range.
2016 American League MVP Odds At Sports Interaction
2016 American League MVP Contenders
Last August, we correctly predicted Donaldson would win the AL MVP award, a bet that paid +260 at www.5Dimes.eu.
Let’s see if we can hit another juicy AL MVP winner this year by breaking down the top contenders.
Mike Trout (+275)
Being in contention for the AL MVP award is nothing new to the Angels slugger. Trout won the award in 2014 and has finished second in the other three seasons of his career, including his rookie year in 2012 (he won the AL Rookie of the Year award as well).
Trout is having another phenomenal year. He leads Major League Baseball in on-base percentage and ranks third in the AL in batting average, fourth in both runs scored and RBI, and fifth in steals. He’s also the AL leader in Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
Just like last year, however, the knock on Trout is that his Angels are likely to miss the playoffs. Many MVP voters have trouble picking a player on a non-playoff team (they haven’t done so since 2003, when Alex Rodriguez won the award with Texas).
Josh Donaldson (+325)
The defending AL MVP had a slow start to 2016, but has been red hot for the past month and a half. He leads the AL by a wide margin in runs scored, is fourth in RBI and OBP, and ranks second to Trout in WAR.
Two things need to happen for Donaldson to repeat as AL MVP: he needs to have as good a second half as he did last year, and his team needs to as well. The Jays are currently a wild card team in the AL, and Donaldson probably needs to be on a division winner in order to become the first repeat winner of the AL MVP since Miguel Cabrera in 2012-13.
Jose Altuve (+550)
Altuve is the sparkplug of the Astros offence. He’s 20 percentage points ahead of anyone else in the American League in hitting (.348) and also leads the AL in steals. Remarkably, the 5-foot-6 second baseman is also among the league leaders in slugging percentage and is third in the AL in WAR.
Altuve earned some mild MVP consideration the past two years, including a 13th-place finish in 2014 when the Astros were one of the worst teams in baseball. If Houston can continue its current surge (they’re 43-26 since May 1) to win the AL West, Altuve would get a much more serious look from AL MVP voters.
Manny Machado (+550)
The Orioles’ third baseman is having another good year. His numbers are strong across the board, but Machado isn’t bowling anyone over in any particular category.
He’s the top player on a Baltimore team that is having an unexpectedly good year, leading the AL East. For Machado to claim the AL MVP, however, the Orioles will have to hold on to win the division and he’ll need a torrid second half.
David Ortiz (+600)
This one is interesting. Big Papi announced before the year that this would be his final season, and he’s gone on to have one of the best seasons that any 40-year-old player has ever had.
Ortiz is second in the AL in batting average, OBP and RBI, and he leads the league in doubles and extra base hits – all despite barely being able to run the bases anymore.
No DH has ever won the AL MVP award, and not playing a defensive position will hurt Ortiz. But if the Red Sox can win the AL East, Ortiz is a media darling and could be a very popular sentimental pick among voters.
Robinson Cano (+700)
There’s no disputing Cano’s offensive abilities, but he seems to be on the AL MVP list more because of his defence this year. Cano leads all second basemen in the AL in fielding percentage and total zone runs (runs saved due to his range).
He’s fourth in the AL in WAR, but doesn’t rank in the league leaders in hardly any offensive categories. Because of that, and with the Mariners floundering around .500 for much of this season, we don’t see much value in Cano – even at 7:1 on the 2016 American League MVP odds.
2016 American League MVP Predictions
You could argue Trout is the best player in baseball, and you can debate whether players on losing teams should still be considered for MVP awards. The Angels could finish last in the AL West, and if they did, we’d need better than +275 odds to take Trout to win the MVP.
We love Donaldson as much as anybody, but we don’t feel Donaldson is a good bet to win AL MVP. The Blue Jays don’t have the assets in their farm system to make big moves like they did before last year’s trade deadline, while Boston does and probably should be the favourite to win the AL East.
If that happens, Ortiz will be a big part of it, and getting 6:1 odds on the Boston DH looks like great value at this point of the season. A big question about the aging slugger will be whether he can sustain this level of excellence throughout the dog days of the summer.
Altuve is the other great value bet on the 2016 American League MVP odds. His Astros have played great baseball for several months and if he wins the batting title by a wide margin, we could see the Houston second baseman hoisting the award this year.