Who will catch the ball for Detroit now that Calvin Johnson is gone? (Photo credit: bmward_2000 via Foter.com / CC BY-NC)
Just like betting on teams to win their divisions, regular season win totals can be a profitable way to bet on the NFL.
Each season, there are teams that are pleasant surprises and teams that are huge disappointments. It’s always interesting to compare teams’ records at the end of the year to what their regular season win totals were at the start of it.
Here are four teams whose actual 2015 win totals varied the most from the pre-season win totals listed at www.Bodog.eu on opening day.
TEAM | Projected 2015 Win Total | Actual 2015 Win Total | Differential |
---|---|---|---|
PANTHERS | 8.5 wins | 15 wins | +6.5 |
CARDINALS | 8.5 wins | 13 wins | +4.5 |
COWBOYS | 9.5 wins | 4 wins | -5.5 |
RAVENS | 9 wins | 5 wins | -4 |
Turnovers always play a big factor in whether teams exceed expectations or fall short of them. The Panthers and Cardinals were first and fourth, respectively, in turnover ratio. The Cowboys were the worst, with the Ravens ranking second-worst.
Dallas and Baltimore also had bad luck, each losing their starting QBs to season-ending injuries.
Some of this stuff is obviously unpredictable. But some of these things you can see coming, such as whether teams are over-rated or under-rated, or whether they have the depth to overcome injuries to key players. Dallas had no legitimate backup QB so when Romo went down in Week 2, the Cowboys were done.
That said, 10 teams finished within 1 win of their projected win totals. That’s why half a victory can be worth approximately “70 cents” (going from +100 even odds to -170, for example, which is a difference of 70 cents of juice) on the odds.
So if you’re going to do some season win totals betting, make sure you get the best possible lines on all your bets.
Here’s our 3 favourite 2016 NFL season win total betting picks and the sportsbook we used to get the line. At the bottom of this article, we’ve compiled a comparison of what our top 5 sportsbooks for Canadians were offering on each team.
1. Eagles Under 7 Wins
Odds: -150 at Sports Interaction
How long until Carson Wentz takes over under centre for the #Eagles? https://t.co/tVPSbBqnAB @LoweDown21 pic.twitter.com/8f4R8oJJGP
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) August 26, 2016
Philly has a new coach, but they’re also rebuilding. They traded a lot to get QB Carson Wentz in the draft, and though Wentz isn’t expected to be the starter on opening day, the Eagles will probably get him in there once their season starts going south.
The NFC East looks pretty competitive. Dallas is back to being the favourite now that Tony Romo is healthy again, the Redskins won the division last year and the Giants should be better as well. That means 6 tough games for the Eagles before they even get into non-divisional play.
Add in road games at Seattle and Cincinnati, and home games versus the Steelers, Packers and Vikings, and we definitely don’t see Philadelphia getting to 8 wins.
2. Lions Under 7 Wins
Odds: +104 at Pinnacle
The Lions’ offense is going to look a lot different this season.@wingoz previews the Detroit Lions.https://t.co/S7dLtymVrC
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) August 24, 2016
Detroit’s offence has been heavily reliant on Calvin Johnson for a decade, and now he’s gone. We’re not sure who Matthew Stafford is going to throw the ball too, and the Lions don’t have much of a running game to make up for it. Detroit’s defence was middle of the pack last season and doesn’t seem to have improved.
Green Bay and Minnesota are both candidates to win 10+ games, and the Bears should be a bit better than last season, so a 2-4 division record seems likely for Detroit. They’d need to go 5-5 outside of the division to get to 7 wins, and they need to visit Indianapolis, Houston and Dallas. Home dates against the Redskins and Jaguars are no sure thing, either.
3. Buccaneers Over 7 Wins
Odds: -123 at Sports Interaction
.@TBBuccaneers coach Dirk Koetter on Jameis Winston: “There’s nothing that we ask of him that he can’t do.”https://t.co/PgmIGZC1m5
— USA TODAY Sports NFL (@usatoday_nfl) August 25, 2016
Jameis Winston came into the NFL last year to plenty of fanfare and delivered a pretty respectable rookie season. He threw for 4,000 yards and 22 touchdowns, and ran for six more TDs. He needs to cut down on the interceptions (15), but it’s safe to expect an even better year from Winston this season.
Tampa won 6 games last year in spite of those turnovers. They’ve improved their defence and they also have a strong running game. The NFC South looks pretty bad other than Carolina, and the Bucs went 3-1 against the Saints and Falcons last year.
Tampa’s non-division schedule includes the Rams, 49ers, Bears and Chargers. We just need a .500 season from the Buccaneers to win this bet, and that looks like a very realistic expectation.
2016 NFL Season Win Total Betting Odds (as of Aug. 26, 2016)
- Boldface depicts best odds on that bet
TEAM | Pinnacle | Bodog | 5Dimes | SIA | Will Hill |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
CARDINALS | O9.5 -219 U9.5 +184 |
O9.5 -200 U9.5 +160 |
O9.5 -200 U9.5 +165 |
O10 -128 U10 -109 |
O9.5 -188 U9.5 +150 |
FALCONS | O7.5 +125 U7.5 -146 |
O7.5 +100 U7.5 -130 |
O7.5 +110 U7.5 -140 |
O7.5 +102 U7.5 -143 |
O7.5 +110 U7.5 -138 |
RAVENS | O8 -149 U8 +127 |
O8.5 +120 U8.5 -150 |
O8.5 +115 U8.5 -145 |
O8.5 +105 U8.5 -147 |
O8 -150 U8 +120 |
BILLS | O8 +128 U8 -150 |
O8 +100 U8 -130 |
O8.5 +150 U8.5 -180 |
O8 -101 U8 -138 |
O8 +110 U8 -138 |
PANTHERS | O10.5 +117 U10.5 -137 |
O10.5 -110 U10.5 -120 |
O10.5 -110 U10.5 -120 |
O10.5 -136 U10.5 -104 |
O10.5 +110 U10.5 -138 |
BEARS | O7.5 +120 U7.5 -140 |
O7.5 +120 U7.5 -150 |
O7.5 +120 U7.5 -150 |
O7.5 -102 U7.5 -137 |
O7.5 +120 U7.5 -150 |
BENGALS | O9.5 +105 U9.5 -122 |
O9.5 +100 U9.5 -130 |
O9.5 -110 U9.5 -120 |
O9.5 -147 U9.5 +105 |
O9.5 -111 U9.5 -111 |
BROWNS | O4.5 -150 U4.5 +128 |
O4.5 -135 U4.5 +105 |
O4.5 -140 U4.5 +110 |
O4.5 -118 U4.5 -118 |
O4.5 -150 U4.5 +120 |
COWBOYS | O9.5 +128 U9.5 -150 |
O9.5 +100 U9.5 -130 |
O9.5 +120 U9.5 -150 |
O9.5 +107 U9.5 -150 |
O9.5 +120 U9.5 -150 |
BRONCOS | U9.5 +122 U9.5 -143 |
O9 -135 U9 +105 |
O9.5 +120 U9.5 -150 |
O9.5 -127 U9.5 -109 |
O9.5 +130 U9.5 -163 |
LIONS | O7 -121 U7 +104 |
O7 -115 U7 -115 |
O7.5 +130 U7.5 -160 |
O7 -122 U7 -114 |
O7 -111 U7 -111 |
PACKERS | O10.5 -136 U10.5 +116 |
O10.5 -170 U10.5 +140 |
O10.5 -160 U10.5 +130 |
O10.5 -203 U10.5 +142 |
O10.5 -138 U10.5 +110 |
TEXANS | O8.5 -107 U8.5 -109 |
O8.5 -115 U8.5 -115 |
O8.5 -125 U8.5 -105 |
O8.5 -131 U8.5 -107 |
O8.5 +110 U8.5 -138 |
COLTS | O9.5 +172 U9.5 -204 |
O9.5 -135 U9.5 +105 |
O9.5 +150 U9.5 -180 |
O9.5 -101 U9.5 -139 |
O9.5 +163 U9.5 -200 |
JAGUARS | O7.5 -132 U7.5 +113 |
O7.5 -125 U7.5 -105 |
O7.5 -120 U7.5 -110 |
O7.5 -140 U7.5 -101 |
O7.5 -105 U7.5 -120 |
CHIEFS | O9.5 -127 U9.5 +109 |
O9.5 -115 U9.5 -115 |
O9.5 -125 U9.5 -105 |
O9.5 -118 U9.5 -117 |
O9.5 -120 U9.5 -105 |
RAMS | O7.5 +167 U7.5 -198 |
O7.5 +155 U7.5 -190 |
O6.5 -210 U6.5 +170 |
O7.5 +126 U7.5 -177 |
O7.5 +110 U7.5 -138 |
DOLPHINS | O7 +122 U7 -143 |
O7 -130 U7 +100 |
O6.5 -200 U6.5 +165 |
O7 -123 U7 -112 |
O7 -105 U7 -120 |
VIKINGS | O9.5 -125 U9.5 +107 |
O9.5 -150 U9.5 +120 |
O9.5 -130 U9.5 +100 |
O9.5 -137 U9.5 -102 |
O9.5 -125 U9.5 +100 |
PATRIOTS | O10.5 -118 U10.5 +101 |
O10.5 -165 U10.5 +135 |
O10.5 -130 U10.5 +100 |
O10.5 -164 U10.5 +118 |
O10.5 -125 U10.5 +100 |
SAINTS | O7 -135 U7 +116 |
O7 -130 U7 +100 |
O6.5 -160 U6.5 +130 |
O7 -117 U7 -118 |
O7 -143 U7 +115 |
GIANTS | O8 -120 U8+103 |
O8 -140 U8 -110 |
O8.5 +125 U8.5 -155 |
O8 -155 U8 +111 |
O8 -125 U8 +100 |
JETS | O8 +142 U8 -167 |
O8 +110 U8 -140 |
O7.5 -130 U8.5 +100 |
O8 +112 U8 -157 |
O8 +138 U8 -175 |
RAIDERS | O8.5 -103 U8.5 -113 |
O8.5 -140 U8.5 +110 |
O8.5 -125 U8.5 -105 |
O8.5 -147 U8.5 +105 |
O8.5 -120 U8.5 -105 |
EAGLES | O7.5 +159 U7.5 -188 |
O7 +120 U7 -150 |
O7.5 +175 U7.5 -210 |
O7 -109 U7 -128 |
O7.5 +150 U7.5 -188 |
STEELERS | O10.5 +113 U10.5 -132 |
O10.5 -115 U10.5 -115 |
O10.5 +100 U10.5 -130 |
O10.5 -124 U10.5 -112 |
O10.5 +110 U10.5 -138 |
CHARGERS | O7 -191 U7 +162 |
O7 -130 U7 +100 |
O6.5 -220 U6.5 +175 |
O7 -140 U7 +101 |
O7 -188 U7 +150 |
49ERS | O5.5 +104 U5.5 -121 |
O5.5 -105 U5.5 -125 |
O5.5 +100 U5.5 -130 |
O5.5 -114 U5.5 -121 |
O5.5 -110 U5.5 -110 |
SEAHAWKS | O10.5 -144 U10.5 +123 |
O10.5 -130 U10.5 +100 |
O10.5 -140 U10.5 +110 |
O10.5 -139 U10.5 +100 |
O10.5 -125 U10.5 +100 |
BUCCANEERS | O7.5 +117 U7.5 -137 |
O7.5 +120 U7.5 -150 |
O7.5 +135 U7.5 -165 |
O7 -123 U7 -113 |
O7.5 +120 U7.5 -150 |
TITANS | O5.5 -175 U5.5 +149 |
O5.5 -190 u5.5 +155 |
O5.5 -170 U5.5 +140 |
O5.5 -176 U5.5 +125 |
O5.5 -175 U5.5 +138 |
REDSKINS | O7.5 +110 U7.5 -128 |
O7.5 -105 U7.5 -125 |
O7.5 +100 U7.5 -130 |
O7.5 -113 U7.5 -122 |
O7.5 +110 U7.5 -138 |