2016 NFL Season Win Totals Odds And Picks

Who will catch the ball for Detroit now that Calvin Johnson is gone? (Photo credit: bmward_2000 via Foter.com / CC BY-NC)


Just like betting on teams to win their divisions, regular season win totals can be a profitable way to bet on the NFL.

Each season, there are teams that are pleasant surprises and teams that are huge disappointments. It’s always interesting to compare teams’ records at the end of the year to what their regular season win totals were at the start of it.

Here are four teams whose actual 2015 win totals varied the most from the pre-season win totals listed at www.Bodog.eu on opening day.

 

TEAM Projected 2015 Win Total Actual 2015 Win Total Differential
PANTHERS 8.5 wins 15 wins +6.5
CARDINALS 8.5 wins 13 wins +4.5
COWBOYS 9.5 wins 4 wins -5.5
RAVENS 9 wins 5 wins -4

Turnovers always play a big factor in whether teams exceed expectations or fall short of them. The Panthers and Cardinals were first and fourth, respectively, in turnover ratio. The Cowboys were the worst, with the Ravens ranking second-worst.

Dallas and Baltimore also had bad luck, each losing their starting QBs to season-ending injuries.

Some of this stuff is obviously unpredictable. But some of these things you can see coming, such as whether teams are over-rated or under-rated, or whether they have the depth to overcome injuries to key players. Dallas had no legitimate backup QB so when Romo went down in Week 2, the Cowboys were done.

That said, 10 teams finished within 1 win of their projected win totals. That’s why half a victory can be worth approximately “70 cents” (going from +100 even odds to -170, for example, which is a difference of 70 cents of juice) on the odds.

So if you’re going to do some season win totals betting, make sure you get the best possible lines on all your bets.

Here’s our 3 favourite 2016 NFL season win total betting picks and the sportsbook we used to get the line. At the bottom of this article, we’ve compiled a comparison of what our top 5 sportsbooks for Canadians were offering on each team.

1. Eagles Under 7 Wins

Odds: -150 at Sports Interaction

Philly has a new coach, but they’re also rebuilding. They traded a lot to get QB Carson Wentz in the draft, and though Wentz isn’t expected to be the starter on opening day, the Eagles will probably get him in there once their season starts going south.

The NFC East looks pretty competitive. Dallas is back to being the favourite now that Tony Romo is healthy again, the Redskins won the division last year and the Giants should be better as well. That means 6 tough games for the Eagles before they even get into non-divisional play.

Add in road games at Seattle and Cincinnati, and home games versus the Steelers, Packers and Vikings, and we definitely don’t see Philadelphia getting to 8 wins.

2. Lions Under 7 Wins

Odds: +104 at Pinnacle

Detroit’s offence has been heavily reliant on Calvin Johnson for a decade, and now he’s gone. We’re not sure who Matthew Stafford is going to throw the ball too, and the Lions don’t have much of a running game to make up for it. Detroit’s defence was middle of the pack last season and doesn’t seem to have improved.

Green Bay and Minnesota are both candidates to win 10+ games, and the Bears should be a bit better than last season, so a 2-4 division record seems likely for Detroit. They’d need to go 5-5 outside of the division to get to 7 wins, and they need to visit Indianapolis, Houston and Dallas. Home dates against the Redskins and Jaguars are no sure thing, either.

3. Buccaneers Over 7 Wins

Odds: -123 at Sports Interaction

Jameis Winston came into the NFL last year to plenty of fanfare and delivered a pretty respectable rookie season. He threw for 4,000 yards and 22 touchdowns, and ran for six more TDs. He needs to cut down on the interceptions (15), but it’s safe to expect an even better year from Winston this season.

Tampa won 6 games last year in spite of those turnovers. They’ve improved their defence and they also have a strong running game. The NFC South looks pretty bad other than Carolina, and the Bucs went 3-1 against the Saints and Falcons last year.

Tampa’s non-division schedule includes the Rams, 49ers, Bears and Chargers. We just need a .500 season from the Buccaneers to win this bet, and that looks like a very realistic expectation.

 

2016 NFL Season Win Total Betting Odds (as of Aug. 26, 2016)

  • Boldface depicts best odds on that bet
TEAM Pinnacle Bodog 5Dimes SIA Will Hill
CARDINALS O9.5 -219
U9.5 +184
O9.5 -200
U9.5 +160
O9.5 -200
U9.5 +165
O10 -128
U10 -109
O9.5 -188
U9.5 +150
FALCONS O7.5 +125
U7.5 -146
O7.5 +100
U7.5 -130
O7.5 +110
U7.5 -140
O7.5 +102
U7.5 -143
O7.5 +110
U7.5 -138
RAVENS O8 -149
U8 +127
O8.5 +120
U8.5 -150
O8.5 +115
U8.5 -145
O8.5 +105
U8.5 -147
O8 -150
U8 +120
BILLS O8 +128
U8 -150
O8 +100
U8 -130
O8.5 +150
U8.5 -180
O8 -101
U8 -138
O8 +110
U8 -138
PANTHERS O10.5 +117
U10.5 -137
O10.5 -110
U10.5 -120
O10.5 -110
U10.5 -120
O10.5 -136
U10.5 -104
O10.5 +110
U10.5 -138
BEARS O7.5 +120
U7.5 -140
O7.5 +120
U7.5 -150
O7.5 +120
U7.5 -150
O7.5 -102
U7.5 -137
O7.5 +120
U7.5 -150
BENGALS O9.5 +105
U9.5 -122
O9.5 +100
U9.5 -130
O9.5 -110
U9.5 -120
O9.5 -147
U9.5 +105
O9.5 -111
U9.5 -111
BROWNS O4.5 -150
U4.5 +128
O4.5 -135
U4.5 +105
O4.5 -140
U4.5 +110
O4.5 -118
U4.5 -118
O4.5 -150
U4.5 +120
COWBOYS O9.5 +128
U9.5 -150
O9.5 +100
U9.5 -130
O9.5 +120
U9.5 -150
O9.5 +107
U9.5 -150
O9.5 +120
U9.5 -150
BRONCOS U9.5 +122
U9.5 -143
O9 -135
U9 +105
O9.5 +120
U9.5 -150
O9.5 -127
U9.5 -109
O9.5 +130
U9.5 -163
LIONS O7 -121
U7 +104
O7 -115
U7 -115
O7.5 +130
U7.5 -160
O7 -122
U7 -114
O7 -111
U7 -111
PACKERS O10.5 -136
U10.5 +116
O10.5 -170
U10.5 +140
O10.5 -160
U10.5 +130
O10.5 -203
U10.5 +142
O10.5 -138
U10.5 +110
TEXANS O8.5 -107
U8.5 -109
O8.5 -115
U8.5 -115
O8.5 -125
U8.5 -105
O8.5 -131
U8.5 -107
O8.5 +110
U8.5 -138
COLTS O9.5 +172
U9.5 -204
O9.5 -135
U9.5 +105
O9.5 +150
U9.5 -180
O9.5 -101
U9.5 -139
O9.5 +163
U9.5 -200
JAGUARS O7.5 -132
U7.5 +113
O7.5 -125
U7.5 -105
O7.5 -120
U7.5 -110
O7.5 -140
U7.5 -101
O7.5 -105
U7.5 -120
CHIEFS O9.5 -127
U9.5 +109
O9.5 -115
U9.5 -115
O9.5 -125
U9.5 -105
O9.5 -118
U9.5 -117
O9.5 -120
U9.5 -105
RAMS O7.5 +167
U7.5 -198
O7.5 +155
U7.5 -190
O6.5 -210
U6.5 +170
O7.5 +126
U7.5 -177
O7.5 +110
U7.5 -138
DOLPHINS O7 +122
U7 -143
O7 -130
U7 +100
O6.5 -200
U6.5 +165
O7 -123
U7 -112
O7 -105
U7 -120
VIKINGS O9.5 -125
U9.5 +107
O9.5 -150
U9.5 +120
O9.5 -130
U9.5 +100
O9.5 -137
U9.5 -102
O9.5 -125
U9.5 +100
PATRIOTS O10.5 -118
U10.5 +101
O10.5 -165
U10.5 +135
O10.5 -130
U10.5 +100
O10.5 -164
U10.5 +118
O10.5 -125
U10.5 +100
SAINTS O7 -135
U7 +116
O7 -130
U7 +100
O6.5 -160
U6.5 +130
O7 -117
U7 -118
O7 -143
U7 +115
GIANTS O8 -120
U8+103
O8 -140
U8 -110
O8.5 +125
U8.5 -155
O8 -155
U8 +111
O8 -125
U8 +100
JETS O8 +142
U8 -167
O8 +110
U8 -140
O7.5 -130
U8.5 +100
O8 +112
U8 -157
O8 +138
U8 -175
RAIDERS O8.5 -103
U8.5 -113
O8.5 -140
U8.5 +110
O8.5 -125
U8.5 -105
O8.5 -147
U8.5 +105
O8.5 -120
U8.5 -105
EAGLES O7.5 +159
U7.5 -188
O7 +120
U7 -150
O7.5 +175
U7.5 -210
O7 -109
U7 -128
O7.5 +150
U7.5 -188
STEELERS O10.5 +113
U10.5 -132
O10.5 -115
U10.5 -115
O10.5 +100
U10.5 -130
O10.5 -124
U10.5 -112
O10.5 +110
U10.5 -138
CHARGERS O7 -191
U7 +162
O7 -130
U7 +100
O6.5 -220
U6.5 +175
O7 -140
U7 +101
O7 -188
U7 +150
49ERS O5.5 +104
U5.5 -121
O5.5 -105
U5.5 -125
O5.5 +100
U5.5 -130
O5.5 -114
U5.5 -121
O5.5 -110
U5.5 -110
SEAHAWKS O10.5 -144
U10.5 +123
O10.5 -130
U10.5 +100
O10.5 -140
U10.5 +110
O10.5 -139
U10.5 +100
O10.5 -125
U10.5 +100
BUCCANEERS O7.5 +117
U7.5 -137
O7.5 +120
U7.5 -150
O7.5 +135
U7.5 -165
O7 -123
U7 -113
O7.5 +120
U7.5 -150
TITANS O5.5 -175
U5.5 +149
O5.5 -190
u5.5 +155
O5.5 -170
U5.5 +140
O5.5 -176
U5.5 +125
O5.5 -175
U5.5 +138
REDSKINS O7.5 +110
U7.5 -128
O7.5 -105
U7.5 -125
O7.5 +100
U7.5 -130
O7.5 -113
U7.5 -122
O7.5 +110
U7.5 -138