Auston Matthews Has 95% Chance To Win Calder Trophy

No Toronto Maple Leafs player has won a major NHL award since 1992-93, when Doug Gilmour claimed the Selke Trophy as the league’s top defensive forward.

Sure, Jason Blake won the Bill Masterton (perseverance, sportsmanship and dedication to hockey) in 2007-08, with Mats Sundin also earning honours that year with the Mark Messier Leadership Award. Alexander Mogilny also nabbed the Lady Byng (gentlemanly conduct) in 2002-03.

But when hockey fans think major NHL awards, we think the big 5: the Hart (regular season MVP), the Norris (top defenceman), the Vezina (top goalie), the Jack Adams (top coach) and the Calder (top rookie). If you want to make it 6, we can throw in the Conn Smythe, though that’s a post-season award for the MVP of the Stanley Cup playoffs and is announced when the Cup is presented, not at the annual awards night in Vegas.

Good news, Leafs fans: That drought looks like it’s about to end. At least that’s according to oddsmakers, who have made Auston Matthews a massive favourite on the 2017 Calder Trophy odds.

Updated 2017 Calder Trophy Odds at Bodog

2017 Calder Trophy odds

As of May 1, Bodog was listing Matthews at -2000 odds to win the NHL’s rookie of the year award. To put that into better perspective, that implies that Matthews has a 95.24% chance to claim the Calder (in case you’re wondering, here’s how to convert betting odds into percentage of probability).

Your only other option on the 2017 Calder Trophy odds was to take the field, which paid +800 (8:1). That field includes the other two NHL rookie of the year finalists, Winnipeg Jets winger Patrik Laine and Columbus Blue Jackets defenceman Zach Werenski.

At the beginning of the season, Matthews was a -145 favourite to win the Calder Trophy, followed by the Winnipeg Jets’ Patrik Laine (+400), Matthews’ teammate William Nylander (+800) and Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray and Toronto’s Mitch Marner (+1000 each). And as recently as late March, Sportsnet suggested the 2017 Calder Trophy race was one of several NHL awards that were “too close to call.”

So what has given Matthews such an edge in the Calder race? Here’s a few of his highlights:

  • Led all rookies in scoring (69 points)
  • Set franchise rookie records in goals (40) and points
  • First NHL rookie to score 40 goals since Ovechkin, and just the sixth teenager to do it
  • Led the NHL with 32 even strength goals

Laine had a tremendous year himself, finishing with 36 goals and 28 assists. He may have won the rookie goal-scoring title if he hadn’t missed 9 games due to a concussion, and he did it on a Jets team that didn’t make the playoffs.

Werenski topped rookie blueliners in scoring with an impressive 47 points (11 goals and 36 assists). The 19-year-old American also averaged more than 20 minutes per game to help the Blue Jackets finish with a team-record 108 points, and Columbus missed him in the playoffs when he was injured (though post-season performance is not included in the voting.)

But the people have spoken. Just check out this screenshot of a poll conducted by Sportsnet.ca.

Calder Trophy voting

Clearly, it’s pretty tough to argue with Matthews as the 2017 NHL rookie of the year.

But if you disagree, you should take a shot at an 8:1 return by betting the field at Bodog.