Baltimore Ravens Season Win Total: Under 8.5

Baltimore Ravens

Football betting line: Over 8.5 -135/Under 8.5 +105 (odds subject to change)
Last season: 10-6
Pick: Under 8.5

The Ravens are the defending Super Bowl champions, winning their second NFL title in the past 12 years with a 34-31 victory over the favoured 49ers last February.They’ve made the playoffs the last five years, six of the past seven and nine of the last 12.

Can the Ravens succeed without the leadership of Ray Lewis?
Can the Ravens succeed without the leadership of Ray Lewis?

They’ve signed Super Bowl MVP QB Joe Flacco to the highest-paid contract in the league, a six-year, $120-million pact that features $52 million in guaranteed money.

And oddsmakers have listed their NFL season win total at 8.5? What gives?

Well, it’ll be a much different group of Baltimore Ravens that take the field this season in defence of their Super Bowl title.

Gone are legendary linebacker Ray Lewis, star safeties Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard, cornerback Cary Williams, fullback Vonta Leach, receiver Anquan Boldin, center Matt Birk, nose tackle Ma’ake Kemoeatu and linebacker Dannell Ellerbe. That’s nine players that started for the Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII, now gone.

According to the Baltimore Sun, no NFL team has ever lost more than five Super Bowl starters from its roster before the following season began.

These aren’t just ordinary starters, either. Lewis was the heart and soul of the team, Reed was a leader of the defence, and even Leach was a wildly popular player considered by some as the best fullback in the league.

Some quality parts remain, to be sure. Flacco’s playoff performance last year cemented him as an elite quarterback, even if his regular-season numbers didn’t bowl anybody over. Ray Rice is an absolute stud at running back, Torrey Smith is one of the NFL’s premier deep threats at WR, and Dennis Pitta had a breakout season last year with seven touchdowns.

Questions abound on defence, however. Baltimore has hung its hat on defence for more than a decade, but that unit was already slipping in recent years (20th against the run last season). The Ravens brought in Elvis Dumerville from Denver and still have Terrell Suggs, but it’s difficult to imagine this unit being any better than middle of the pack.

When you win the Super Bowl, the schedule makers don’t do you any favours. In addition to playing in the competitive, if not strong, AFC North, the Ravens will visit Denver to start the year and will also be home to Green Bay, Houston and New England. The only cupcakes on Baltimore’s schedule appear to be visits to the Bears, Bills and Dolphins – and nothing comes easy on the road in the NFL.

Interestingly, the Ravens were underdogged only two times when Cantor Gaming posted point spreads last month for all NFL games up to Week 16. (They were catching points at Denver and at Pittsburgh, and posted as pick’em at Chicago, at Detroit and home to New England.)

Typically, that would suggest the Ravens are poised to win 10 games or more. But are those point spreads a reflection of the public affection for Super Bowl champions, rather than the true reality that the over/under win total of 8.5 would suggest?

We think so. There are plenty of holes to patch in Baltimore this year and the oddsmakers are telling us as much with this low season win total. Don’t expect anything better than a .500 season from the Ravens.

 

Baltimore Ravens 2013 schedule

1 Thu, Sep 5
  • @ Denver
8:30 PM NBC
2 Sun, Sep 15
  • vs Cleveland
1:00 PM CBS
3 Sun, Sep 22
  • vs Houston
1:00 PM CBS
4 Sun, Sep 29
  • @ Buffalo
1:00 PM CBS
5 Sun, Oct 6
  • @ Miami
1:00 PM CBS
6 Sun, Oct 13
  • vs Green Bay
1:00 PM FOX
7 Sun, Oct 20
  • @ Pittsburgh
4:25 PM CBS
8 BYE WEEK
9 Sun, Nov 3
  • @ Cleveland
4:25 PM CBS
10 Sun, Nov 10
  • vs Cincinnati
1:00 PM CBS
11 Sun, Nov 17
  • @ Chicago
1:00 PM CBS
12 Sun, Nov 24
  • vs New York Jets
1:00 PM CBS
13 Thu, Nov 28
  • vs Pittsburgh
8:30 PM NBC
14 Sun, Dec 8
  • vs Minnesota
1:00 PM FOX
15 Mon, Dec 16
  • @ Detroit
8:30 PM ESPN
16 Sun, Dec 22
  • vs New England
8:30 PM NBC
17 Sun, Dec 29
  • @ Cincinnati
1:00 PM CBS