Nine Baseball Betting Tips

Pitching changes can drastically affect the betting odds in a baseball game. (Photo credit: Keith Allison / Foter / CC BY-SA)


Batting averages, ERAs, fielding percentages and more. There’s so much to consider when betting on baseball.

Fortunately for you, we’ve narrowed things down to nine baseball betting tips that will help you enjoy success making baseball picks on the MLB odds.

1. Stay disciplined

The Major League Baseball season is the longest in professional sports. Over a 162-game schedule, even the top teams will lose four or five games in a row — and so will you.

Be sure to stay disciplined and don’t chase your losses when things aren’t going well. If you consistently make good baseball picks and don’t vary your wager sizes, you should come out ahead in the long run.

2. Starting pitchers

The starting pitching matchup is the biggest thing oddsmakers consider when setting the MLB odds, and it should be the first thing you look at as well.

The win-loss records and earned-run averages of the starting pitchers are a good place to start, but there are more things to keep in mind. Take a look at each pitcher’s recent performances to see if they are on top of their games or in a slump.

Also, baseball is a game of matchups, so research how each pitcher has performed against the other team in his career. Most starting pitchers has a few hitters that they always enjoy success against, as well as a few hitters that they struggle against.

3. Consider players’ recent performance

Yogi Berra once famously said 90 per cent of baseball is half mental, and he wasn’t far off.

More than any other sport, baseball is a game of confidence. The best hitters in the game will go through stretches when they are impossible to get out, and they’ll also go through slumps where they can’t seem to buy a hit. Pitchers are the same way.

Avoid making your baseball picks on teams whose star slugger or starting pitcher is in a slump, and look to bet on teams whose stars are on top of their game.

4. Avoid betting on heavy favourites

A popular baseball betting strategy is to stay away from the heavy favourites.

The more favourites you bet, the more bets you have to win in order to simply break even.

Remember that the best teams in baseball generally still lose at least one third of their games, while the worst teams will often win a third of their games. Betting moneyline favorites of -200 means you need to win two of three bets to simply break even.

The greatest value in MLB odds often lie with the underdog, considering you have to risk less to win more.

5. Consider the run line

When you think a big favorite is likely to blow out its opponent, you might want to bet them on the run line (point spread) instead.

Taking a favorite on a -1.5 run line means they need to win by more than one run in order for you to win your bet.

Here’s an example: The Boston Red Sox are -180 favorites against the Kansas City Royals on the moneyline, but the Red Sox are only -115 favorites against the run line. If you bet on the Red Sox on the run line instead of the moneyline, you’ll only have to risk 115 dollars to win 100 instead of risking 180 to win 100. Keep in mind that the Red Sox have to win by two or more runs in order for you to win your bet.

A good baseball betting strategy is to only consider the run line when betting on a road team. Remember that the home team will only get eight at-bats if it is winning the game after 8.5 innings, reducing their chances of winning by two runs. Home teams win baseball games by one run approximately 17 per cent of the time, while the road team wins by one run approximately 10 per cent of the time.

It’s also good to avoid betting favorites on the run line when the over/under on the game is low. For example, a team is more likely to win a game by two or more runs when the over/under is 10 than when the over/under is 7.

6. Shop around for the best lines

Getting the best odds is always an important strategy, but perhaps in no sport is it more important than baseball (and perhaps hockey, which also is most often bet on a moneyline).

Different sportsbooks offer different MLB odds on each game, either because they have an imbalance of bets on one side or because they cater to different clientele.

Even if those different odds are just a few cents on a game (ie. Pinnacle Sports lists the Jays at -115 and Bodog lists them at -120), risking the least amount you can or winning the largest amount you can on each wager definitely adds up over time.

In our example, saving that “five cents” by betting the Jays at Pinnacle instead of Bodog would save you $100 for every 20 $100 wagers you made.

7. Don’t forget about the bullpens

Nothing is more frustrating than to see the team you bet on lose their lead in the late innings.

When deciding whether or not to bet on a team, take a look at their bullpen to see if you can trust their relievers to get the key outs in the final innings.

Also, make sure the team’s top relief pitchers haven’t been used a lot in the past few days so that they’ll be available in the game you bet on.

If you really like the team you are considering betting on but are nervous about their bullpen, you might want to bet the first half (first five innings) of the game instead.

8. Check the lineups

During the grueling 162-game baseball season, teams will often give their star players a rest here and there.

A common time that teams sit their stars are when they play a day game after a night game, or on Sundays.

Make sure that the teams you take with your baseball picks are playing their best players. Lineups for each game are usually available online or on Twitter well before the first pitch.

If you don’t have time to look up the gameday lineups, you can often find out a team’s plans in advance by reading coverage on the Internet or on Twitter.

9. Think totals

Beyond betting moneylines and run lines, another way how to bet baseball is by betting on the total (over/under).

The total, like all MLB odds, is based primarily on the starting pitchers. An advantage of totals is that they’re close to even odds, helping you avoid paying 2:1 to bet on a favourite or having to take a longshot on an underdog not likely to win.