Rajon Rondo and the Celtics are playing at a fast pace so far this season. (Photo credit: mariselise / Foter / CC BY)
Identifying good over and under bets early in the season can pay big dividends in NBA betting.
While oddsmakers will quickly catch on to teams that are strong against the spread and increase the NBA betting lines, they aren’t as quick to adjust to teams that are consistently going over or under the total.
Here are three teams that have been great over bets this season, and three that are cashing under tickets with regularity.
Best Over Bets
Celtics (7-1 Over-Under)
So far this season, Boston has been an ideal candidate for over bettors: a potent offence (105.6 points per game, 3rd in NBA) and a leaky defence (108.4 points against per game, 29th). Oddsmakers have been slow to adjust, lining many of the Celts’ games in the 190s. It’s interesting to note that the only one of Boston’s eight games not to go over was against the Rockets, who have gone under in eight of nine.
Lakers (6-2)
Often times with struggling teams, commitment to defence is the first to go. That’s definitely true with the 1-8 Lakers, who are allowing a league-worst 109.4 points per contest. LA has allowed opponents to shoot a sizzling 48.8 per cent from the floor, and 40.6 per cent from behind the three-point line. Their D has been so bad that they’ve gone over in six of their first eight games despite an offence that ranks in the middle of the league and over/under totals commonly in the 200s.
Pelicans (6-2)
New Orleans ranks third in the league with 105.6 points per game, but is an average defensive team (98.4 points against, 16th). So why have six of the Pelicans’ first eight games gone over the total? Maybe it’s just a case of short-term variance. Three of New Orleans’ first eight games went over the total by less than four points, including one by one and another by two. We’ll need to see a bit more before we can conclude this team is a solid over bet this season.
Best Under Bets
Rockets (1-8)
Houston was one of the best over bets last year, ranking second to the Clippers in offence and allowing the sixth-most points in the league. So it’s an absolute stunner to see the Rockets go under in eight of their first nine. It doesn’t appear to be any fluke, either. Houston is second in the NBA in points against per game and first overall in field goal percentage allowed. Part of it might also be how dominant the Rockets were early in the season, winning most of their games by double digits. There haven’t been many late-game fouls in Rockets games that extend the clock and elevate scores over the total.
Bucks (2-7)
Milwaukee is awful offensively (91.9 points per game, 29th) and stellar defensively (93.6 points per game against, third). That means oddsmakers haven’t been able to set totals low enough for Bucks games. Going into Sunday’s action, Milwaukee had gone under in six straight contests, even though none of them were lined at more than 195 points. In two of the Bucks’ first nine games, neither team scored more than 90 points.
Thunder (3-7)
No Durant, no Westbrook, no chance and no excitement for the OKC Thunder this season. Oklahoma City has been held to 90 points or less in seven of its first 10 games, including one that went to overtime. The Thunder has tried to survive the absence of its big stars by playing strong defence, ranking sixth in the league in field goal percentage against. It’s been enough to cash under tickets on a consistent basis, but not enough to avoid a 3-7 start to the campaign.