The 3 Hottest ‘Over’ Bets So Far In The NFL

Matt Ryan and the Falcons have lit up the scoreboard to the tune of nearly 35 points per game this season. (Photo credit: Keith Allison via Foter.com / CC BY-SA)

Now that 3 weeks are in the books in the NFL, we have a much better sense of each team’s strengths and weaknesses.

For example, did anyone expect Carson Wentz and the Eagles would have one of the NFL’s best offences through 3 games? Philadelphia is averaging 30.7 points per game, which has keyed their surprising 3-0 start (with an average margin of victory of 21.7 points).

Or how many of us thought the Patriots would average 27 points per game in the absence of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski? And then the absence of Jimmy Garappolo? And then maybe the absence of Jacoby Brissett?

Here are the 3 teams that have emerged as the best ‘Over’ bets of the NFL season so far, combining to go 9-0 Over the total in the first 3 weeks of the season.

1. Atlanta Falcons (average 34.7 points for, 30.3 points against)

The Falcons are an Over bettor’s dream – a dynamic offence and a horrible defence.

After putting up 45 points against the Saints Monday night, Atlanta ranks first in the NFL in passing yards and total yards. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons are 30th in yards allowed, 29th against the pass and 28th in points against.

Atlanta’s totals were 46.5 and 47 in their first 2 games, but oddsmakers ballooned the Over/Under for their matchup with the Saints up to 54 – the highest on the Week 3 NFL board. The teams then nearly cleared that total by halftime, combining for 45 first-half points, and soared Over the total by 23 points.

That offensive showcase on Monday Night Football might have been the worst thing for bettors fattening up on Atlanta Over bets, as now the secret is out.

No total had yet been posted for the Falcons/Panthers Week 4 matchup when we published this, but we’ll be surprised if it’s not in the 50s again.

2. Washington Redskins (average 22.7 points for, 30.7 points against)

The Redskins have consistently played high-scoring games so far this season, with each of their 3 contests featuring 50 points or more.

Kirk Cousins catches a lot of heat for a guy who won a division title last year, but the Redskins rank third in the NFL in passing yards this year and fourth in total yards.

Washington has had to put up points because the defence is in a shambles despite the signing of big-name cornerback Josh Norman. They rank 30th in the league in yards allowed, 26th against the pass and 27th versus the run. The Redskins have given up 27+ points in each of their first three games.

After totals for Washington’s first 3 games were 49, 47 and 47, they’ll play their lowest-totalled game this week when they host the Browns. The Over/Under has been set at 45.5.

3. Denver Broncos (average 28 points for, 19 points against)


When Peyton Manning retired, Denver supporters said it didn’t matter because last year’s Broncos won the Super Bowl with a dominating defence.

So far, however, it appears that Trevor Siemian and the Denver offence leading the way. Siemian has thrown 5 TD passes in 3 games as the Broncos have averaged 28 points per contest, making up for a defence that has been good but not great (8th in yards against).

The Broncos’ scoring average has been a bit misleading, though. Two of their touchdowns this year were defensive scores, and the defence has forced other turnovers to set up the Denver offence with a short field.

Still, when people think Broncos right now, they think defence. It’s why the total in 2 of Denver’s 3 games so far has been 42 or lower. Oddsmakers may have made some adjustments this week, putting the Over/Under at 44.5 for Denver’s upcoming game at Tampa Bay.