If you’ve ever been inside the Venetian or the Palazzo or Bellagio, or pretty much any place on Las Vegas Boulevard not named Imperial Palace, you know casinos aren’t in the business of giving money away.
Blackjack is designed to give the house just enough of an edge to make money over time. Roulette, craps and slot machines are the same way, just to more of an extreme.
And sportsbooks, though certainly not the biggest revenue source for casino operators, aren’t run by idiots either.
The Los Angeles Kings certainly look unstoppable right now. Save for a 3-1 loss to the Canucks in Game 4 of the opening round, the Kings have won all of their other postseason contests and held opponents to two goals or less in all of those victories.
Who in their right mind would want to bet against the Kings right now?
That might be what will soon make betting against the Kings the more prudent choice.
Maybe not now, with L.A. up 3-0 on the Phoenix Coyotes in the West Conference final. It’s very much possible that the Coyotes, realizing they’re overmatched, have thrown in the psychological towel and will be roadkill in Game 4 Sunday in L.A.
But what about the Stanley Cup final, where the Kings will meet an East Conference champion — either the Rangers or Devils — who are on a roll of their own?
Remember, the key to profitable sportsbetting isn’t necessarily betting on who you think will win. It is betting on propositions where the potential reward (the odds) is greater than the probability suggests it should be.
In other words, if a team has a 20 per cent of winning the game but pays 10 to 1 odds (suggesting it has a 10 per cent chance), it’s a smart bet. You’ll lose this bet eight times out of 10, but the two times you win will more than offset the eight times you lose.
You’re not the only one who has noticed the Kings’ recent dominance. Oddsmakers have as well, making LA a -200 favourite over Phoenix in Game 3. Those odds have been jacked up as high as -230 for Game 4.
To put these new odds in perspective, when LA faced the Coyotes during regular season, the Kings were favourites of -128, -120, -135, -147 and -129. The Kings were -111 favourites in each of the first two games of the West final as well (though LA was on the road in both those games).
Do these odds look like they’re getting a bit inflated to you? Unless the Kings all of a sudden re-signed Wayne Gretzky, does it make sense from a mathematical perspective that they have gone from 53 per cent likely to win (-111 odds) to 66 per cent likely to win (-200 odds) against the same opponent?
No, it doesn’t make sense. But oddsmakers are simply capitalizing on the public’s new infatuation with the Los Angeles Kings.
It’s why a contrarian way of thinking can be a good thing when it comes to sportsbetting. So often, it seems so obvious one team is going to beat the other. But if the expected outcome always happened, how would those massive casinos exist?
Guaranteed, when the Kings face either the Rangers or Devils — particularly the Devils, since they’re not a “public” team that garners a lot of betting support — the sportsbooks will be cheering against the Kings because the majority of money will be on LA.
Whose side would you rather be on, the general public that typically loses over time, or the owners of those majestic palaces on Las Vegas Boulevard?
Just something to think about.