Biggest NFL Betting Lines Moves Of Week 1

With Adrian Peterson back in the fold for the Vikings, people are lining up to bet on Minnesota against San Fran. (Photo credit: Joe Bielawa / Foter / CC BY)


Analyzing line movement can be a big help when you’re making your NFL betting picks.

When you see NFL betting lines move a few points, you can usually conclude that most people are betting on the team that has become a bigger favourite or a smaller underdog. Oddsmakers move the NFL point spreads in order to attract more betting on the other team.

For example, if Green Bay is -7 at San Diego and everyone is still betting on Green Bay, the oddsmakers might move the point spread to 10. Then all of a sudden other people are more tempted to bet on San Diego, since they are now getting 10 points instead of 7.

You can use line moves to determine who everyone’s betting on and try to figure out if you want to join them. Or you can look to take advantage of opportunities where you think oddsmakers have moved the line too much the other way, especially when the line moves cross key NFL numbers.

Below are six Week 1 NFL betting lines that have moved the most, and whether or not we agree with the line move. And don’t forget to check out our full Week 1 NFL betting picks, which break down every game on the NFL betting lines and give our leans on each.

1. New England, from -2.5 to -7 vs. Pittsburgh

This line consistently hung around the -2.5/-3 range until it steamed to -7 on Sept. 3. That just happened to be the day a federal judge overruled Tom Brady’s suspension.

The status of the Pats quarterback is the obvious reason for the drastic line movement. If you were paying attention early enough and weren’t convinced Brady would sit out the opener, you could have got the Super Bowl champions at home in the season opener at less than a field goal!

Now, in order for the Pats to cover, they have to win by more than 7 against a decent Pittsburgh squad.

Agree/Disagree: Disagree

2. Green Bay, from -4.5 to -7 @ Chicago

This one was predictable, wasn’t it? Oddsmakers knew the money would come in on the Packers, so why would they open the point spread at only -4.5?

Maybe because it isn’t easy for road teams to cover touchdown preads in the NFL, especially against division rivals like the Bears. Throw in the fact that this is John Fox’s debut as head coach in Chicago, and the Jordy Nelson injury, and we wouldn’t be in a hurry to bet the Packers -7 in this spot.

Agree/Disagree: Disagree

3. Miami, from -1.5 to -4 @ Washington

The fact that Miami, a non-playoff team in much of the past decade, was a road favourite over Washington was already a diss of the Redskins. The fact the line has steamed to Dolphins -4 is just a slap in the face to the ‘Skins, but it’s much deserved.

The RG3 circus in Washington just continues to get more and more ridiculous. When things start to go wrong for the Redskins, we think they’ll just get worse and worse and worse.

Agree/Disagree: Agree

4. Seattle, from -3 to -4.5 @ St. Louis

Here’s another matchup when the public was obviously going to line up to bet the road favourite, and the point spread opened at just a field goal.

The two-time NFC champion Seahawks have had trouble with the Rams recently. Last year, they lost straight up in St. Louis, thanks to a couple of memorable special teams plays by the Rams. St. Louis has also covered four of the past five meetings in the series.

Agree/Disagree: Disagree

5. San Diego, from -1.5 to -3 vs. Detroit

Moving the Chargers from small favourites to laying a field goal is a pretty significant move in a game we feel can easily go either way. People might be down on the Lions now that they’ve lost Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, but Detroit’s offence can still put up points and San Diego isn’t necessarily known for preventing them. In a game that could easily be down to the wire, taking 3 points seems the way to go.

Agree/Disagree: Disagree

6. Minnesota, from +4 to -2.5 @ San Francisco

Is this line move more about confidence in the Vikings or an indictment of the 49ers? Our guess is it’s both, which explains how a point spread moves nearly a touchdown.

Minnesota brings back Adrian Peterson this year, Teddy Bridgewater has a year of experience under his belt and the Vikes have a great defence. San Fran’s woes over the past six months have been well documented, from the departure of coach Jim Harbaugh to the exodus of several star defensive players. And Colin Kaepernick hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard recently. We don’t love going with the public on a road favourite on Monday Night Football, but the 49ers don’t give us much choice.

Agree/Disagree: Agree