The Blue Jays’ chances of coming back from an 0-3 deficit to beat the Indians in the ALCS aren’t as much of a longshot as you might think.
After getting on the series scoreboard Tuesday with a 5-1 win at Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays pay +461 to win the next 3 games and advance to the World Series (odds from www.Pinnacle.com).
Those odds suggest Toronto has approximately an 18% chance of becoming just the second team ever to overcome an 0-3 series deficit in the MLB playoffs (2004 Red Sox were the other). They also suggest the Jays have as good a chance of beating the Indians as Donald Trump has of winning the U.S. election.
Toronto is a -180 favourite Wednesday to win Game 5 at home and force the ALCS back to Cleveland, where the Jays could also be favourites in Game 6 based on the likely starting pitching matchup. That could leave things up to a Game 7 Saturday in which Corey Kluber – the pitcher Toronto beat Tuesday – starts for the Indians, and Cy Young candidate Aaron Sanchez might get the ball for the Jays.
Besides, the Jays are no longer attempting to come back from 0-3; they’re only down 1-3. And plenty of teams have overcome 1-3 series deficits in the MLB playoffs before.