Blue Jays vs. Mariners Betting Pick – Monday, Sept 19

After a disappointing 4-game series split in Los Angeles, the Blue Jays open a huge 3-game series with the Mariners tonight in Seattle.

Toronto fell to 5-11 in September with a 4-0 loss yesterday to the Angels. That defeat, in which the Jays managed just 4 hits, dropped Toronto into the second Wild Card spot in the American League – and just 2 games ahead of the Mariners, who are 9-2 in their last 11.

Marco Estrada will start tonight’s game for Toronto, opposed by Tijuan Walker. The Jays opened as +105 underdogs but were a slight betting favourite by this morning, and the Over/Under was set at 8.5.

Let’s try to find the best way to do some Blue Jays betting tonight.

Estrada is injured, and struggling

It’s tough to find reasons to bet on Estrada right now. He’s 3-6 in his last 10 outings with a 5.47 ERA, and many are pointing to a back injury as the reason why.

However, a lot of baseball experts saw this regression coming because Estrada’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was ridiculously low, indicating his stats were skewed by a lot of early-season luck.

Whatever the reason, he’s not the same pitcher as the one who was in contention for the AL Cy Young Award earlier this year. And making matters worse for tonight, he’s 0-3 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in his career versus the Mariners.

We can’t pull the trigger with Estrada on the road against anyone right now, especially at -115 odds.

The Blue Jays aren’t scoring many runs


Toronto’s cold slump isn’t just because of starting pitching. The Jays have been held to 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 11 games, and they’re 2-6 in those games they score 3 or less.

Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders, Russell Martin and Kevin Pillar are all hitting under .231 in September.

It’s difficult to bet an Over when the Jays’ offence is struggling like this.

Blue Jays betting pick for today

We don’t want to bet on Estrada, and we are reluctant to bet the Over.

The Jays are in desperate need of a victory, but we can’t bet with our heart. Seattle -105 looks like the play.

However, if you want a chance to win your bet and also have the Blue Jays win, you might want to bet Seattle’s Team Total Over 4 (+104 odds at Pinnacle). The way Estrada’s pitching lately, 4 looks like a low total for the M’s.

As long as the Mariners score 5+ runs, you’ll win your bet (if they score 4, it’s a push) and maybe the Jays can pull out a high-scoring win.