Braves vs Blue Jays MLB Betting Odds And Pick (May 16)

The Blue Jays let us down last night, playing some sloppy defence early in the game and falling 10-6 to the Braves at Rogers Centre.

Toronto did knock around Atlanta starter Bartolo Colon as expected, collecting seven hits and three runs off the chubby righty in five innings. But Jays starter Mike Bolsinger struggled with his curveball and was beat up for six runs in 4.2 innings, and Freddie Freeman bashed a three-run homer in the sixth to put Atlanta up 9-3 and basically salt the game away.

It left us wishing we’d gone with the Blue Jays Team Total Over 4.5 instead. Team totals are a great way to bet on a baseball game when you feel strongly about one team’s chances of scoring a lot of runs (or not many), and don’t want to have to worry about how the other team does.

We’ll put that one behind us and look to get back in the winner’s circle this afternoon as the teams meet again for the second game of their two-game series. If you’re betting on this game, make sure to note the odd start time of 4:05 p.m. eastern.

Braves Vs. Blue Jays Betting Odds At Pinnacle

Braves vs Blue Jays betting odds May 16

This betting line has seen a lot of interesting action on the moneyline. Toronto opened as a solid -165 favourite Monday at Pinnacle, but some big action on Atlanta moved the Jays down to the -140 range that evening. The line then moved back up to -150 before coming back down again in the morning, and the Jays were -138 favourites as of late morning Tuesday.

The Over/Under has not seen a lot of movement since opening at 8.5 with -113 juice on the Under. A bit of Under money moved the juice to -118 and it won’t be a surprise to see this total at 8 by first pitch. The Jays pay +155 to win the ball game by more than 1 run on the -1.5 run line handicap (similar to the Proline H+).

(For updated odds, visit our Live Odds page.)

Braves Vs. Blue Jays Betting Pick


Atlanta’s starting pitcher this afternoon is Jaime Garcia, who has very good lifetime numbers against Toronto. He’s 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three career starts versus the Jays, though he hasn’t beaten them since 2014 when he was with the Cardinals. Garcia is coming off a tough outing Wednesday in Houston, when he gave up six hits and four runs in six innings. Walks have been an issue for Garcia, who is averaging 4.58 walks per 9 innings, slightly more than his 5.35 strikeouts per 9 innings. His 1-2 record and 4.33 ERA are actually a bit flattering, with his FIP and xFIP both near or over 5.

Toronto starter Marco Estrada rebounded from a poor start in his previous outing to beat the Mariners last Thursday, giving up just two runs in six innings of work in a 7-2 victory. He’s striking out nearly four batters for every walk he issues, which is an excellent ratio, and is 2-2 with a 3.12 ERA on the season.

We lean towards the Under in this one, but are a bit concerned about Garcia’s walks. All it takes is a couple of free passes and then a three-run home run to spoil an Under bet, and that’s a strong possibility here. Let’s look for Estrada to shut down the Braves this afternoon and hope it’s enough for the Blue Jays to earn the victory.

Pick: Atlanta Braves Team Total Under 3.5 -102 (Bet this game at Pinnacle)