Breaking Down The Week 16 NFL Betting Lines

With just two weeks to go in the NFL season, the stakes are higher than ever for many games on this week’s slate. Here are a few things to keep in mind about some of Week 16’s biggest matchups.

Atlanta at Detroit (+3.5)
The Falcons have something to play for in this one, since a win would lock up home field throughout the NFC playoffs and allow them to rest their starters next week. Detroit is reeling, having lost seven games in a row and playing out the string. So the natural inclination here is to bet on the Falcons, but the line is only 3.5 points? Well, don’t forget that up until last weekend’s embarrassing 38-10 loss at Arizona, the Lions had only lost one game by more than eight points all year. At home, Detroit has beaten Seattle, lost in overtime to Houston and lost by four to the Packers. If the Lions have any pride at all, they’ll be up for this game, looking to atone for last weekend’s performance against the Cardinals. The Falcons are coming off a satisfying rout of the Giants last weekend in which they avenged a playoff loss from last season. And the Lions have the league’s top passing attack (over 300 yards a game) while Atlanta ranks just 17th in defending the pass.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-4)
Cincy has won five of six and sits a game ahead of Pittsburgh in the AFC North. The Steelers have lost four of five to fall to 7-7 on the season. Yet Pittsburgh is laying more than a field goal to the Bengals. Sure, this game is at Heinz Field, but don’t forget the Steelers have lost their last two games on their home field. Pittsburgh probably deserves to be favoured in this one, if for no other reason than they need this game desperately, but we’re not sure they should be laying more than three points against any team with a winning record these days. Pittsburgh’s defense gets a lot of attention (and for good reason, ranked first in the league once again in least yards allowed), but the Bengals’ defensive unit (sixth) is also pretty tough to move the ball against.

New Orleans at Dallas (-2.5)
Oddsmakers actually opened this game with Dallas as 3-point favourites, and bettors quickly moved the line down to -1 by Tuesday. Why? The Cowboys are playing their best football of the season, winners of four of their last five after last weekend’s overtime win over the Steelers. The Saints had lost three in a row before whipping the Bucs 41-0 last weekend, and their playoff hopes are done. Perhaps bettors weren’t enamoured with the way the Cowboys keep walking the tight rope, with each of their last four wins coming by a touchdown or less. Or maybe people saw New Orleans explode for 41 points against Tampa Bay and fell back in love with Drew Brees and that Saints attack. Whatever the reasons for the line move, it was curious to see a team out of the playoff hunt getting early betting support over “America’s Team” that is fighting for the postseason. The line had moved back to -2.5 by Wednesday, however.

Washington at Philadelphia (+5.5)
Another matchup between a team in the playoff hunt (Washington) facing a team playing out the string (Philly). The Redskins proved last weekend they could win without Robert Griffin III, defeating the Browns in Cleveland, and they might have to do it again since RG3 is questionable for this week. The Eagles showed some fight in their most recent game, leading and outplaying the Bengals into the third quarter, before self-destructing with turnovers and losing handily. Couple factors to keep in mind here: the Eagles played last Thursday night, so they’ve had a few more days to prepare for this one; and NFC East division games are always fiercely contested, no matter the records of the teams. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Eagles keep this one close.

NY Giants at Baltimore (+2.5)
With all due respect to the San Fran/Seattle matchup, this has potential to be the best game of the weekend. The Niners and Seahawks clash will likely decide the NFC West, but both teams appear to be headed to the playoffs. That isn’t necessarily the case for the Giants and Ravens, both of whom were sitting pretty a month ago but are now in danger of missing the playoffs. Baltimore has lost three straight and given up an average of nearly 30 points a game in that stretch. New York has dropped four of six, including a 34-0 humiliation at Atlanta last week, but its two wins in the last six games were blowouts of the Packers and Saints. With the unpredictability of both teams (we expected to see a better effort from the Ravens last week but instead Baltimore was blown out at home by Denver), the best way to look in this one might be at the over 47.5.

Chicago at Arizona (+5.5)
The Bears are another head-scratcher. After winning seven of its first eight, Chicago has lost five of six to lose control of the NFC North and is scrambling to salvage a wild card spot. Chicago certainly missed Jay Cutler for two of those games, but Cutler was back for the three most recent losses when the Bears were held to 17, 14 and 13 points. Defensively, injured linebacker Brian Urlacher isn’t what he used to be, but Chicago still appears to miss him desperately. As bad as Arizona is (they’d lost nine in a row before whipping the Lions 38-10 last week), we wouldn’t be laying 5.5 points with the Bears against anybody these days.

San Francisco at Seattle (pk)
Wow, this one should be a doozy. The Seahawks are 6-0 at home this season (both straight up and against the spread), while the Niners are 5-2 straight up and ATS on the road. Both teams are coming off very impressive showings, with Seattle whipping the Bills in Toronto and San Fran upsetting the Patriots in Foxboro. Both teams have shown a knack for coming up big in big games. SF has won at Green Bay, New Orleans and New England (though the Niners did get crushed at home by the Giants), and Seattle has defeated Green Bay, New England and the Bears (in Chicago). How do you bet against either team in this one? We don’t intend to, preferring to just sit back and watch some great action instead.