Preseason favourites always look like a good bet to win the Super Bowl on paper but they don’t often cash in. See: the 2012 Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots. Both entered the season as the two favourites on the NFL futures and both fell way short of their ultimate goal.
This year, the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers are the respective favourites at +600. Are they the best choice for bettors, though? Here’s a look at the 2013 Super Bowl favourites as well as some longer shots with a reasonable chance to win it.
Favourites
Denver (+600) is back again after losing to the Ravens in the AFC Divisional Round but they’ll begin the season without Pro Bowl linebacker Von Miller, who is suspended six games for using a banned substance. Combined with the departure of Elvis Dumervil, who left for Baltimore, the Broncos pass rush – and defense – will have its work cut out for them. However, they have Peyton Manning, who has gotten stronger, and Wes Welker, who they pinched from New England. They are the class of the AFC West by a mile but playoff success is likely to hinge whether the defense can limit big plays.
San Francisco (+600) underwent a drastic change at quarterback last season when they went with Colin Kaepernick over Alex Smith, who was injured at the time, but Kaepernick’s mobility made the offense more explosive. Now, the 49ers are going into 2013 with Kaepernick as the starter and the hope is the offense continues to improve while the defense stays elite. After being so close in each of the last two seasons, San Francisco deserves to be the sports betting favourites in the NFC.
However, the competition will be tight as their biggest threat comes from inside their division. The Seattle Seahawks (+900) rose through the ranks last season thanks to the growth of their own young quarterback and they are ready to take on the 49ers once again. Like the 49ers, they have a mobile passer in Russell Wilson and like the 49ers, they also have an active and hard-hitting defense. If offseason prize Percy Harvin can return midseason and give the offense a boost, the Seahawks could post back-to-back double-digit winning seasons for the first time in their history.
Of course, you can’t talk about favourites without New England (+1000), whose betting lines were taken off the board when Tom Brady hurt his knee in the preseason. However, he bounced back to play in the next game and he was almost perfect, so New England fans can breathe easy. It has been a weird offseason in New England with Welker leaving, Rob Gronkowski injured and Aaron Hernandez arrested. But they have Brady under center, Bill Belichick as head coach and a young defense that’s on the rise. The Patriots have missed the playoffs just twice since 2001, so they should get there again but some are wondering whether they have that extra gear they’ll need for the postseason.
Sleepers
The Green Bay Packers (+1100) lead the list of sleepers, although it’s tough to call a recent Super Bowl champ led by former MVP Aaron Rodgers a sleeper. The Packers need to get more out of their defense because Rodgers and the offense will hold up their end of the bargain. Atlanta (+1200), Houston (+1800) and New Orleans (+1800) are next in line. The first two still have plenty to prove as they are very good in the regular season but they haven’t been able to take that next step in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Saints could be back with a vengeance as head coach Sean Payton has served his year-long suspension for “Bountygate”. We know Drew Brees and the offense will lead the way but their record-setting, which allowed the most regular season yards in NFL history last season, has to improve or they won’t be a factor.
The New York Giants (+2200), Cincinnati Bengals (+2500) and Chicago Bears (+2500) are next and out of this group, the Bears may be the team to watch. The offense should be much better with head coach Marc Trestman as quarterback Jay Cutler will be allowed to let it fly. If the defense can move on without Brian Urlacher, the Bears could turn some heads in the NFC. Remember, they started 7-1 last season before injuries set in.
The Ravens (+2800) are going to have a hard time defending their title as the marked team. Flacco is under huge expectations thanks to a massive contract and the defense is missing Lewis and Ed Reed, two of their longtime leaders. Meanwhile, the Washington Redskins (+3300) seem like a reasonable value play. They are on the ascent with Robert Griffin III at quarterback after winning their last seven games of the regular season. They have to keep him healthy and the defense has to improve. If these two things happen, they could shake up the NFL betting odds for the Super Bowl as the season goes on.
— Article courtesy of Bodog