Canadiens Best NHL Team In Canada: Oddsmakers

Carey Price and the Canadiens are projected to earn the most victories of all Canadian NHL teams this year. (Photo credit: © Bridget Samuels)

According to oddsmakers, the Montreal Canadiens will be the best NHL team in Canada this season, but not a top Stanley Cup contender.

Canadian online sportsbook Sports Interaction has set the Habs’ season win total at 43.5 for the 2016-17 campaign, which begins October 13. Montreal’s season win total ranks behind 10 other teams and is tied with 4 other teams, 1 win ahead of the rival Bruins.

Canada’s next-best team is projected to be the Jets (Over/Under 40.5 wins), while the Canucks’ 33.5 win total is lower than every other team in the NHL except for the Arizona Coyotes (32.5).

The Chicago Blackhawks are favoured to win the Stanley Cup this season, paying +750 at Sports Interaction (7.5 to 1). Montreal is ranked 12th at +2000.

Let’s take a closer look at how oddsmakers are ranking all 30 NHL teams when it comes to season win totals, chance of making the playoffs, and chances of winning the Stanley Cup.

(All odds from Sports Interaction)

2016-17 NHL Season Win Totals

Capitals claim President’s trophy, top seed in playoffs (by @bethamaiman) https://t.co/TQdb8T7Uhk pic.twitter.com/yuh04pOvon

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) March 29, 2016

The Capitals and Lightning are projected to win the most games in the NHL this season, with each boasting a season win total of 49.5. That’s 6.5 wins less than Washington earned last year on its way to the President’s Trophy, while the Lightning would need to win 4 more games than last year in order to eclipse their season win total.

According to the NHL season win totals, the Oilers should be the most improved team in the league this year. Edmonton’s season win total of 39.5 is 8.5 wins higher than what the Oilers managed last season, though a healthy Connor McDavid in his second season should make a big difference. Other top candidates to improve include the Maple Leafs (+6.5 wins this year), the Canadiens and the Wild (+5.5 each).

Other than Washington, the team projected to regress the most is the Stars. Dallas’s season win total of 44.5 represents 5.5 wins less than a season ago, when the Stars finished atop the Western Conference standings.

Here are the season win totals for each team (with last year’s win total in parentheses). Canadian teams are in bold.

Anaheim Ducks: 43.5 (46)
Arizona Coyotes: 32.5 (35)
Boston Bruins: 42.5 (42)
Buffalo Sabres: 35.5 (35)
Calgary Flames: 39.5 (35)
Carolina Hurricanes: 34.5 (35)
Chicago Blackhawks: 46.5 (47)
Colorado Avalanche: 38.5 (39)
Columbus Blue Jackets: 35.5 (34)
Dallas Stars: 44.5 (50)
Detroit Red Wings: 39.5 (41)
Edmonton Oilers: 39.5 (31)
Florida Panthers: 44.5 (47)
LA Kings: 45.5 (48)
Minnesota Wild: 43.5 (38)
Montreal Canadiens: 43.5 (38)
Nashville Predators: 44.5 (41)
New Jersey Devils: 36.5 (38)
New York Islanders: 43.5 (45)
New York Rangers: 43.5 (46)
Ottawa Senators: 36.5 (38)
Philadelphia Flyers: 39.5 (41)
Pittsburgh Penguins: 47.5 (48)
St. Louis Blues: 46.5 (49)
San Jose Sharks: 46.5 (46)
Tampa Bay Lightning: 49.5 (46)
Toronto Maple Leafs: 36.5 (29)
Vancouver Canucks: 33.5 (31)
Washington Capitals: 49.5 (56)
Winnipeg Jets: 40.5 (35)

2016-17 NHL Playoffs Odds (% of probability in parentheses)

Tuning out, turning off: No Canadian teams in NHL Playoffs drives viewers away – 54% say they’ll watch less or not … pic.twitter.com/Y2bhUN6YfC

— NHL News (@recentnhlnews) April 7, 2016

There is obviously a large correlation between a team’s season win totals and their chances of making the playoffs. However, it took just 87 points to make the playoffs last year in the Western Conference, while teams in the Eastern Conference needed at least 93.

The Blackhawks, Penguins, Blues, Sharks, Lightning and Capitals all appear to be virtual locks to qualify for the post-season this year, with each team’s odds suggesting a probability of higher than 90%. The Ducks, Bruins, Stars, Panthers, Kings, Canadiens, Predators, Islanders, Rangers and Flyers are all given a 60% chance or better of making the playoffs.

There were no Canadian NHL teams in the playoffs last year, and there aren’t many slam dunks for playoff hockey north of the border this season either. Outside of Montreal, the Jets, Oilers and Flames represent Canada’s best chances at making the playoffs, sitting at 53%, 50% and 49% probability, respectively. The Leafs, Canucks and Senators are all around 30% to make the playoffs.

Here are the odds for each team to make the NHL playoffs this year (with the percentage of probability in parentheses). Canadian teams are in bold.

Anaheim Ducks: -217 (69%)
Arizona Coyotes: +375 (21%)
Boston Bruins: -179 (64%)
Buffalo Sabres: +224 (31%)
Calgary Flames: +103 (49%)
Carolina Hurricanes: +303 (25%)
Chicago Blackhawks: -1000 (91%)
Colorado Avalanche: +157 (39%)
Columbus Blue Jackets: +240 (29%)
Dallas Stars: -370 (79%)
Detroit Red Wings: +120 (45%)
Edmonton Oilers: +101 (50%)
Florida Panthers: -370 (79%)
LA Kings: -333 (77%)
Minnesota Wild: -132 (57%)
Montreal Canadiens: -217 (69%)
Nashville Predators: -385 (79%)
New Jersey Devils: +251 (29%)
New York Islanders: -270 (73%)
New York Rangers: -294 (75%)
Ottawa Senators: +246 (29%)
Philadelphia Flyers: -164 (62%)
Pittsburgh Penguins: -1111 (92%)
St. Louis Blues: -1000 (91%)
San Jose Sharks: -909 (90%)
Tampa Bay Lightning: -1111 (92%)
Toronto Maple Leafs: +204 (33%)
Vancouver Canucks: +203 (33%)
Washington Capitals: -1429 (93%)
Winnipeg Jets: -114 (53%)

2016-17 Stanley Cup Odds

#ChicagoBlackhawks’ Kane, Toews Lead NHL’s Top 20 Forwards https://t.co/TiOx8cqUrK pic.twitter.com/49fvDLJ3XO

— Zesty Blackhawks (@zestyblackhawks) August 10, 2016

The Capitals finished 11 points ahead of any other team last season and the Penguins won the Stanley Cup. Yet, it’s the Chicago Blackhawks who are the only team paying less than 10:1 on the 2016-17 Stanley Cup futures odds.

Chicago has won the Cup 2 of the last 4 years and 3 of the last 7. They’re also coming off a disappointing first-round loss to the Blues in last year’s playoffs.

After Chicago, it’s a pretty tightly-packed bunch of Stanley Cup contenders. The Capitals, Lightning and Penguins are all given a 10:1 chance, followed by the Stars (12:1); Blues (14:1); Panthers, Ducks, Sharks and Predators (16:1); and Kings (18:1).

Here’s the full list of 2016-17 Stanley Cup odds. Canadian teams are in bold