Week 15 CFL Betting Picks: It’s Must-Win Time For Eskimos


Our only CFL betting pick last week was a losing one as the RedBlacks’ offence failed to go Over the 24.5 team total in Winnipeg. That was just our fourth loss against the spread in our last 14 picks, and our record on the season remains a very healthy 17-12 ATS.

We made that pick a few days before the game, and should have paid a bit more attention to the weather forecast. The game was played in a driving rain and strong winds, basically crippling the passing games for each team. Although we didn’t think that Ottawa using a third-string quarterback would be that big of a deal against a pretty mediocre Winnipeg defence, RedBlacks quarterback Ryan Lindley obviously had pretty big issues with it.

On to Week 15, where there are 4 games on the board. Below are sportsbook odds for this week’s matchups, followed by our Week 15 CFL betting picks.

  • Friday, Sept. 29: Alouettes at Stampeders (-17.5, O/U 49)
  • Saturday, Sept. 30: Argonauts at Tiger-Cats (+3, 50.5)
  • Saturday, Sept. 30: Blue Bombers at Eskimos (-1, 59.5)

 

Week 15 CFL Betting Picks

1. Roughriders at RedBlacks betting pick


Regardless of who plays quarterback for Ottawa, both teams are trending towards the Under. Saskatchewan was limited to 9 points last week (granted, by a stout Calgary defence), marking the third straight game the Riders were held to 28 points or less – quite the drop from the 30s and 40s they were putting up earlier this year. And the Saskatchewan defence has shown some signs of improvement in recent action, allowing just 34 points combined in its last 2 outings and surrendering 24 points or less in 4 of its last 6.

Ottawa has gone Over the total just once in its last 12 games, relying on its defence that hasn’t given up 30+ points in 7 straight and 9 of its last 10. With marginal quarterback play, the RedBlacks know they need to keep things low-scoring to have a chance right now, and that’s a trend we expect to continue this week.

Pick: Under 50

2. Alouettes at Stampeders betting pick


Remember when the Stampeders were known for their explosive offence? Things have changed in Calgary, where defence has keyed the Stamps’ 9-game winning streak. Calgary has not allowed more than 24 points in 9 straight games, allowing the Stampeders to keep winning despite the fact their offence has been held in check lately.

Montreal’s season basically ended last week with a loss in Toronto that dropped the Als 3 games behind the division-leading Argos in the East. Other than the fear of getting blown out, there’s not really much to motivate Montreal here.

Meanwhile, the Stampeders should be eager to avenge their only loss of the year (yes, it was in Montreal), and Calgary has a bye week on deck so that limits the potential for a letdown. Besides, as well as the Stamps have played, they’re still only a couple of games ahead of the second-place Blue Bombers, and can’t really afford to let up. If that Calgary defence is focused, they shouldn’t have any trouble shutting down this impotent Montreal attack.

Pick: Under 49.5

3. Argos at Ticats betting pick


It’s amazing, but the Ticats can still approach this game with hopes of winning the East, if not simply making the playoffs. After starting 0-9, Hamilton has won 3 of 4 under new head coach June Jones, including a 24-23 upset last week in B.C. And with a victory at home over the hated Argos, Hamilton could move within 2 games of Toronto for top spot in the East with a game in hand on the Argos.

Both teams are playing some pretty tough defence right now, and there’s a history of low-scoring games between these teams in Hamilton (6 of the last 7 meetings there have gone Under.) The Under is a very tempting play here as well, but we think the better value is backing the Tiger-Cats to continue their late-season surge.

Pick: Tiger-Cats +3

4. Blue Bombers at Eskimos betting pick


No one really wants a piece of the Eskimos right now, which is why Edmonton is just a pick ’em in this contest. After surging out to a 7-0 start to the year, the Eskies have lost 5 straight and look completely lost.

We think the bye week that Edmonton just enjoyed can change all that. Sometimes, it just takes a few days away from the field to allow players to hit the mental reset button, while the coaching staff has had plenty of time to address the issues that have been plaguing the Eskimos.

This is a big game for both teams, but you have to think the Eskimos will approach it with more urgency. If they lose this one, they’ll fall 3 games behind the Bombers for second place in the West (and home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs), plus that long losing streak will continue. Winnipeg can afford a bit of a slipup, and despite the fact the Bombers held Ottawa to 9 points last week, we’re not convinced that the defence is up to the task of stopping an Edmonton attack coming off a bye week.

Even though the spot sets up really well for the Eskimos, we’re still not ready to back Edmonton on the point spread or moneyline because of their potential confidence issues. Just because a team needs a victory doesn’t always mean they get it, especially if that team is struggling.

However, we do think the Eskies will put up some points. By taking Edmonton over its team total, we don’t have to worry about a leaky Eskimos defence squandering a late lead against a Winnipeg offence that has been firing on all cylinders.

Pick: Eskimos Team Total Over 30