We went 1-1 on our Week 16 CFL betting picks, making us 16-11 on the season and dropping our profits slightly to +3.85 units for the year.
The winner came on the Blue Bombers -1.5. Winnipeg led B.C. by 4 points in the final seconds of the fourth quarter and we were ready to count our winnings. Then the Blue Bombers conceded a safety (it was a reasonable strategy, since they were pinned deep in their own territory and would have had to punt) to cut their lead to 2 points, and we quickly had to scramble to make sure we had them -1.5, not -2.
Our loss was on a 6-point teaser on the Redblacks and Stampeders. Ottawa killed the teaser by losing in overtime Friday night (they had to score a last-minute TD to tie Saskatchewan), so it was a bit easier to swallow, but we were kicking ourselves for not playing Calgary -9.5 straight up as they destroyed the Argos 48-20.
Speaking of the Argos, they already were having a tough time drawing fans, even in their first season at BMO Field. With the Blue Jays going deep into the playoffs and Auston Matthews scoring 4 goals in his Leafs debut Wednesday, it’s safe to say there will be a lot of fans disguised as empty seats for this Saturday’s home game against the Roughriders.
There are 3 other matchups to bet on this week as well, so let’s dive into the Week 17 CFL betting picks.
Week 17 CFL Betting Lines
Friday, Oct. 14
Ottawa at Hamilton (Tiger-Cats -3, O/U 52.5)
Winnipeg at British Columbia (Lions -5.5, O/U 55.5)
Saturday, Oct. 15
Saskatchewan at Toronto (pick ’em, O/U 51)
Montreal at Calgary (Stampeders -15, O/U 52)
Odds from Pinnacle.com as of Thursday, Oct. 13
Redblacks at Tiger-Cats (Friday, 7 p.m. eastern)
This is a massive game in the CFL playoff race, as Ottawa holds a 1-point lead over the Tabbies for top spot in the East and a first-round bye in the playoffs.
Both squads have lost 2 straight games and 3 of their last 4. But we see a lot more bright spots in the Redblacks than for Hamilton in this matchup.
Ottawa’s been struggling lately, but at least they’re scoring points and being competitive. They lost in OT last week (although it was at home to the Roughriders) and nearly earned an upset victory in B.C. the previous week, losing by 7. Before a decisive 29-12 win over the Argos Sept. 23, they played the Stampeders tough in Calgary before the Stamps blew the game open late.
The Redblacks have also switched QBs back to Henry Burris, who came into last Friday’s game in relief of struggling Trevor Harris. Burris energized the offence and directed a game-tying TD drive in the final minute, and he apparently looks much healthier than he did earlier this season when he lost the starting job.
Hamilton doesn’t have many positives to fall back on here. They’re banged up with injuries, the most notable one being to QB Zach Collaros that will force him out of this game. It’s not like Collaros was doing a whole lot with the Ticats offence anyway (they haven’t scored more than 21 points in any of their last 4 games), but it’s just another blow to a Hamilton team that didn’t need one right now. The team scrambled this past week to make a slew of roster changes, and it’s unlikely that everyone will be meshed together in time for this contest.
We’ll take the 3 points with Ottawa, but the +130 moneyline price on the Redblacks looks really tempting as well.
Blue Bombers at Lions (Friday, 10 p.m. eastern)
This is the back end of a home-and-home series that started last week with Winnipeg’s 2-point win over the visiting Lions.
B.C. has yet to lose 2 in a row this year, and they’ve covered the spread in their last 4 games when coming off a loss. They also outplayed Winnipeg last week, gaining 185 more yards than the Bombers but getting burned by two Jonathon Jennings interceptions.
Winnipeg could let down a bit after clinching a playoff spot last week (their first in 5 years), and we like the revenge angle for B.C. playing a team that beat them the previous week. This is also an important spot for a Lions defence that has allowed 27+ points in 4 straight games.
We like the Lions, but not enough to lay 5.5 points with confidence. Instead, we’ll use B.C. in a 6-point teaser, moving the Lions to +0.5 on the point spread.
Roughriders at Argonauts (Saturday, 4 p.m. eastern)
Two teams going in absolutely opposite directions right now.
Even though the Roughriders were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week, spirits are high in Saskatchewan. The team has won 3 straight and finally appears to be on the course coach Chris Jones envisioned when he took over the squad.
The Argos are 1-8 in their last 9 games and hardly any of those losses have been close. They’re also 2-6 at home, compared to 3-4 on the road, and after their humiliating 48-20 loss to the Stampeders last week, they’re 9-24 against the spread in their last 33 home games.
Normally, we’d look to bet on a team that was blown out at home in its previous game, expecting a huge increase in intensity. However, Game 2 of the Blue Jays/Indians ALCS will start at practically the exact same time as the Argos kick off Saturday, and we don’t expect many people to pick the Argos over the Jays. That leads to a flat atmosphere and makes it less likely to fear an inspired Argos effort here.
We’ll take Roughriders pick ’em.
Alouettes at Stampeders (Saturday, 7 p.m. eastern)
Off the top of our head, this is the largest point spread of the CFL season. Calgary’s obviously a much better team than Montreal (or any other team in the CFL, apparently), so they’re laying more than two touchdowns in this matchup.
The problem with laying 15 points with the Stampeders is their lack of motivation for pounding the Alouettes here. Calgary’s locked up top spot in the West already and their opposition down the stretch will be the Alouettes twice, sandwiched around the Argos.
It’s hard to imagine Calgary being totally focused for this matchup, while the Alouettes can cling to faint hopes of catching Ottawa or Hamilton for a playoff spot. For that reason alone, we’ll tease Montreal up to +21 points and simply ask the Als to stay within 3 TDs.
Week 17 CFL Betting Picks Recap
We’ve got 3 picks this week: Ottawa +3, Saskatchewan pick ’em, and a 6-point teaser of B.C. +0.5 and Montreal +21.
We got the Redblacks +3 -110 at Sports Interaction, the Roughriders pick ’em -106 at Pinnacle, and the Lions/Alouettes teaser at -110 odds at Bodog.
As always, if you’re playing 2-team teasers, we recommend you use Pinnacle or Bodog as they offer the best 2-team teaser odds.
Good luck, and see you next week!