The race in the CFL’s West Division just keeps getting better and better.
After starting the year with 7 straight wins, the Edmonton Eskimos’ lead atop the West suddenly looks shaky after suffering their first loss of the season last week in Winnipeg.
We all expected Calgary to contend (or win) the West, and the Stamps are hot on Edmonton’s heels with a 6-1-1 record through 8 games. But how about the Blue Bombers? Winnipeg is the hottest team in the league, winner of 5 straight games and seemingly scoring with ease.
The 5-4 Lions will still probably be heard from as well, and even the 3-4 Roughriders still have plenty of postseason hope. Especially with a cross-over spot to the East available, where the RedBlacks sit third at 2-6 and could be bumped out by a Western team with a superior record.
Of course, we’re just getting to the halfway point of the CFL season, and plenty can still happen. Let’s see what the betting lines are for this week’s action, then dive into our Week 10 CFL betting picks with bets for every game on the board.
Week 10 CFL Betting Lines
It looks like another week of compelling football ahead, with 3 of the 4 games on the Week 10 CFL betting lines featuring point spreads under a touchdown.
The Blue Bombers and Alouettes will get things started Thursday in Montreal, where the red-hot Bombers are 1.5-point road favourites. The total of 54.5 looks low at first glance, considering that the only games Winnipeg has gone Under this year featured totals of 58.5 and 59.
Friday, the Roughriders come off their bye week to visit the Edmonton Eskimos. Edmonton is a 6.5-point favourite to rebound from its first loss of the season last week in Winnipeg, and the total is 54.
Week 10 concludes with a doubleheader of action Saturday, beginning in the afternoon as the RedBlacks host the Lions. Ottawa is a slim 1-point home favourite to hand B.C. its third straight loss, with the Over/Under set at 55.
In the nightcap, the East Division-leading Argos head out west to visit the Stampeders. Toronto is catching 10 points against a banged-up Calgary outfit, and oddsmakers have set the total at 55.5.
Week 10 CFL Betting Picks
1. Blue Bombers at Alouettes Betting Pick
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) June 20, 2017
Normally, when a road team coming off a huge victory faces a home team coming off an embarrassing effort, we’d be all over the home team like a fat kid on a Smartie. But after beating our heads against the wall the last few weeks going against a Blue Bombers team we weren’t convinced were for real, we’re going to pass on the Winnipeg fade train this week.
It’s actually really impressive what the Winnipeg offence has been able to acccomplish lately. Their 33-26 home win over the Eskimos last Thursday was the 9th time in their last 10 games that the Blue Bombers put up 30+ points. They’ve also scored 33 points or more in 6 straight contests, keying a 5-1 run in those last 6 outings.
Not that all is perfect in Winnipeg. Their defense is also getting gashed pretty consistently, allowing 25+ points in 8 of their last 9 outings. We’re not sure that the Montreal offence is built to take advantage of that, but then again the Als put up 40 points on the Bombers in their meeting earlier this season in Winnipeg.
Winnipeg is almost always going to get theirs, and we like Montreal to keep up in a bounceback spot. For the first time this season, we’re going with two plays on the same game: Over 54.5 and the Montreal Team Total Over (it’s not posted yet, but we’re assuming it’ll be around 27 with this pick ’em line.)
Pick: Over 54.5 -107 at Pinnacle and Alouettes Team Total Over (odds and book TBD)
2. Roughriders at Eskimos Betting Pick
— The Vancouver Sun (@VancouverSun) August 14, 2017
Saskatchewan went into its bye week with a 41-8 pasting of the Lions in Regina, the fourth time in six games that they’ve scored 37 points or more. But before you buy into the Roughies offence too much, there’s a trend that sticks out about the Green Riders: all of those high-scoring efforts came at home.
The Roughriders are a much different team on the road. In their last four games as the visitor, the Riders haven’t scored more than 18 points. They’ve also lost each of those games, three of them by 15 points or more.
That spells trouble for a visit to Edmonton, where the Eskimos look to rebound from their first loss of the season last week in Winnipeg. Edmonton played poorly in that game, getting outgained by 116 total yards – the first time the Eskies have allowed more yards than they’ve gained all year.
When Edmonton lays an egg, it usually bounces back the following game with a strong defensive effort. The Eskimos have gone Under in 6 of their last 7 games following a loss, and defence will be a focus after giving up 33 points in Winnipeg. Offensively, the Eskimos have scored 26 points or more in 5 straight games, but they’ve also been held to 30 or less in 7 of 10. Saskatchewan, meanwhile, has held opponents to 30 points or less in 6 straight games and 8 of 10. That may not sound that incredible, but remember this is the CFL.
We expect defence to be the calling card for each of these two teams this week, and see value in this total in the mid 50s.
Pick: Under 54.5 -110 at Sports Interaction
3. Lions at RedBlacks Betting Pick
“We’re a good team. We just have to believe it.”#BCLions know there is work to be done in 2nd half of ’17 🏈 💪
— BC Lions (@BCLions) August 22, 2017
We’re believers in the B.C. Lions. And we’re not that surprised to see the defending Grey Cup champion RedBlacks wallowing near the bottom of the league with a 2-6-1 record, given the roster turnover they suffered during the offseason.
So we come into this game looking to bet the Lions after two straight losses. B.C. gave the Stampeders a good run for their money last week in Vancouver, falling 21-17, after getting pasted 41-8 in Saskatchewan the previous week. Those two straight losses have been costly in the tough West as at 5-4, the Lions now sit fourth in the division and have the Roughriders hot on their tail.
As much as we want to bet B.C. here, there’s something not quite right about their offence. It’s not just the 17 and 8 points they’ve put up in their last 2 games, it’s the fact they haven’t scored more than 30 points in 4 straight games and 8 of their last 10. Don’t expect them to blow the doors off Ottawa here either. The RedBlacks defence has held 6 of its last 7 opponents to 27 points or less, and the one exception was the red-hot Blue Bombers offence that scored 33 on them – but only had 24 points until the final few minutes. (We remember, because we were on Ottawa -2 in that game and they led by 7 late before blowing it.)
Ottawa’s 37-18 rout of Hamilton last week was the RedBlacks’ first game of the year decided by more than a touchdown, and just the second decided by more than 5 points. Even at 2-6-1, Ottawa is still in the East Division race, 3 points behind the division-leading Argonauts. In this matchup of two desperate teams, we don’t expect either to win convincingly. And with the Lions as +1.5 underdogs, we can move them to +7.5 with a 6-point teaser at even odds. Let’s do that and then look to close the teaser in the final game of the weekend.
Pick: Lions +7.5 (first leg of 6-point teaser)
4. Argonauts at Stampeders Betting Pick
— Calgary Sun (@calgarysun) August 21, 2017
What a difference Ricky Ray makes for the Argos. After missing Toronto’s 21-9 loss in Montreal 2 weeks ago, Ray returned to the lineup and led the Argos to a 38-6 pounding of the Aloeuttes in last week’s rematch in Toronto. Ray finished the game with 377 yards and 4 touchdowns, with all of those majors coming in the first half as Toronto carried a 35-0 lead into the intermission.
While Toronto’s quarterback is hot, Calgary’s is not. Bo Levi Mitchell struggled last week in a 21-17 win at B.C., and there’s no secret he’s battling a shoulder/upper body injury. With back-to-back games against the Eskimos on deck for the Stampeders, Calgary will just be looking to get through this game with Mitchell unscathed and a victory in its pocket – not exactly motivated to cover this 10-point spread. Stamps star running back Jerome Messam is also banged up, and Calgary will want to nurse him back to full health as well.
Fortunately, the Stampeders defence is very capable of carrying the load in this one. Calgary has allowed an average of 12 points in its last 4 games, and the Argos will have their attention after lighting up the Als last week. Instead of laying or taking the points, we think the safer play is to tease the total up 6 points and go Under the inflated number to close out our 2-game teaser.
Pick: Under 61 (second leg of 6-point teaser at +100 odds at Pinnacle)