Last week was a rough one for us as we went 0-2, dropping us to 18-14 for +2.6 units this season.
Our Week 18 CFL betting picks were on the Redblacks/Ticats Under 53 and a 6-point teaser on the Roughriders -0.5/Eskimos +8.
The Under bet wasn’t close as Ottawa and Hamilton combined for 75 points (the game went to OT) despite playing in cold and rainy conditions. We’d expected the weather to slow down both teams as well as for the defences to show up in such an important game.
In the teaser, Edmonton covered the +8 leg with a 7-point loss in B.C., but red-hot Saskatchewan inexplicably lost at home to the Alouettes. We teased the Roughriders down to -0.5 because we thought 7 points was too much for the Green Riders to cover, but we still expected them to beat a mediocre Montreal team at home.
Let’s hope for better things with our Week 19 CFL betting picks.
Week 19 CFL Betting Lines
Friday, Oct. 28
Edmonton at Hamilton (Tiger-Cats -2.5, O/U 56.5)
Saturday, Oct. 29
Ottawa at Winnipeg (Blue Bombers -5, O/U 55)
British Columbia at Saskatchewan (Lions -3, O/U 52.5)
Sunday, Oct. 30
Calgary at Montreal (Stampeders -9.5, O/U 50)
Odds from Pinnacle.com as of Thursday, Oct. 27
Eskimos at Tiger-Cats (Friday, 7 p.m. eastern)
If this game were played a week ago, Edmonton would probably be the favourite here. The Eskimos had won 3 in a row while the Ticats had dropped 3 straight, 4 of 5 and 6 of 9.
But things changed last week in a big way. Hamilton rallied from a 27-12 halftime deficit to earn a critical 39-36 OT win in Ottawa, locking up a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Eskimos fell to 8-8 after they were outgained by nearly 100 yards in a 32-25 loss in B.C.
Though Hamilton is a point behind Ottawa for first in the East, it’s also quite possible that this game is a possible playoff preview. If the season ended today, Edmonton would play Hamilton in a cross-over game.
Zach Collaros is expected to start at QB for Hamilton, returning from a concussion. But the Ticats were already struggling before his latest injury, and we’re not convinced Collaros’ return will light the Ticats on fire.
Edmonton remains an enigma as well. These are two unpredictable teams right now, and we don’t want any piece of this game. Pass.
Redblacks at Blue Bombers (Saturday, 4 p.m. eastern)
Ottawa is the worst team in the CFL in turnover ratio. Winnipeg is the best.
In an important game for both clubs, that could be the difference maker. Ottawa turned the ball over 5 times last week in a disappointing loss to the Ticats, including a fumble at the Hamilton 1-yard line, a fumble in OT and a fumble deep in its own territory that set up a Ticats TD.
Winnipeg’s also coming off a bye week after posting two straight wins, and the Bombers are 9-2 with Matt Nichols at QB. One of those losses came in Calgary (where everybody loses) by just 2 points.
5 points is a little more than we’d like to lay with the Blue Bombers, however. 3 of their last 5 wins have come by a field goal or less, and Ottawa’s last 3 losses have come by a combined total of 12 points.
Let’s use Winnipeg +1 in a 6-point teaser instead.
Lions at Roughriders (Saturday, 7 p.m. eastern)
It’ll be an emotional evening in Saskatchewan as the Roughriders play their final game at Mosaic Stadium (Taylor Field).
Add in the fact that Saskatchewan is coming off a clunker last week versus Montreal and it looks safe to expect a very strong effort by the home Riders in this contest.
B.C. earned an important victory last week over the Eskimos and this is an important game to the Lions as well as they battle Winnipeg and Edmonton for second place in the West and a first-round playoff game. The Leos have also covered 9 of their last 12 road games and won 5 of their last 6 versus Saskatchewan.
This looks like another great teaser opportunity on the Roughriders. Using them in the other leg of our 6-point teaser allows us to move Saskatchewan to +9, where even losing by a full touchdown will be good enough for the Riders to cover.
Stampeders at Alouettes (Sunday, 1 p.m. eastern)
If the Stampeders show up for this one, it’s no contest. Calgary’s head and shoulders the class of the league at 15-1-1, with their last 4 wins coming by double digits. Last week, they laid 17 points to the Argos and still covered the number.
This is also the regular season finale for the Stamps, who have an opportunity to set a CFL record by finishing 16-1-1. The best previous record in CFL history is 16-2 (Edmonton in 1989). And Calgary should be motivated to play its starters as long as possible because it has a bye next week, followed by a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Coach Dave Dickenson won’t want to give his stars the equivalent of 3 weeks off by sitting them out in this game.
Montreal is still playing with pride, even though they’ve been eliminated from post-season contention. But they’re 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, and 0-7 ATS when coming off a victory.
We’ll lay the 9.5 points with Calgary here and look for one more dominant effort by the Stampeders to finish the season.
Week 19 CFL Betting Picks Recap
We have 2 bets in Week 19: a 6-point teaser on the Blue Bombers +1 and the Roughriders +9, and a point spread bet on the Stampeders -9.5.
We got -110 odds on the teaser at Bodog (which along with Pinnacle is the best sportsbook to use for 2-team, 6-point teasers) and we took -106 odds on the Stampeders at Pinnacle.
Good luck, and see you next week for the final week of the CFL regular season.