No matter how well you handicap a football game, you still need a bit of luck on your side in order to cash a point spread bet
Case in point was in last Thursday’s Hamilton/Edmonton game.
We had the Ticats at +3, happy to take a field goal with the home underdog that was desperate to earn its first win of the season. And things looked great midway through the third quarter, with Hamilton holding a 25-13 lead. In fact, the Tiger-Cats were covering the spread the entire game.
Until the final minute, that is. The Eskimos took the lead with 33 seconds left on the clock, then added a 2-point conversion to take a 3-point lead and hand us a push on our bet. Though we avoided a loss by taking the +3 (we had to shop around for that number, since many sportsbooks listed Hamilton +2.5), it was still painful not to get paid on a bet we should have won.
We also ran into a bit of tough luck in the Redblacks/Argos game Monday night. We had Ottawa on the moneyline at plus money, and the Redblacks tied the game late in the fourth quarter. However, Toronto had the final possession of the game and kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired, handing us a tough loss.
The other pick from Week 5 was a dud. We went back and forth on whether to go Over the Lions team total or Under the Blue Bombers, and made an awful decision by picking the latter. Winnipeg piled up 42 points to easily sail over the 25.5 team total.
We’re now 3-5 on the season with our weekly CFL picks. Fortunately, there’s still a lot of time left in the year to get back into the black once again. Let’s try to get that started here in Week 6.
Week 6 CFL Betting Lines
Some interesting lines in the CFL this week, beginning in Winnipeg where the Bombers are small home favourites against Montreal.
This line opened with Winnipeg as a 4-point favourite, but had dropped to 3 points at several sportsbooks as of Thursday morning. (Pinnacle was one of the few books we use that still had Winnipeg at -3.5.) The Bombers got a lot of betting support last week in B.C. and covered the spread as +4 underdogs, but did let a 42-27 fourth-quarter lead slip away in a tough 45-42 loss.
After laying 3 points on the road in Hamilton (and pushing that point spread, much to our chagrin), the undefeated Eskimos are just 2-point favourites at home to B.C. The Lions could be buoyed by that comeback effort against Winnipeg, or they may suffer an emotional letdown – it’ll be interesting to see what happens there.
In the other games, the Argos are 3-point underdogs in Saskatchewan, and the winless Tiger-Cats are catching nearly two full touchdowns on the road in Calgary, where the Stamps are coming off an impressive 27-10 win over the Roughriders.
Week 6 CFL Betting Picks
1. Alouettes at Blue Bombers Betting Pick
Regular followers of our weekly CFL betting picks will think we’re beating a dead horse here, but we can’t get past our belief that the Blue Bombers are a severely overrated team.
Last year, they regularly feasted on turnovers, offsetting the fact that they were routinely outgained in yards. That trend has continued this year, where the Bombers have given up more yards than they’ve gained in each of their first four games, yet are 2-2 at this point of the season.
Montreal has been extremely competitive in each of its first two road games, arguably against tougher competition to boot. The Alouettes lost by just four points in Edmonton in their first game of the year (covering as +9 underdogs) and then dropped a five-point decision last Wednesday in Ottawa (narrowly missing the cover as +4.5 dogs.)
The early money on Montreal only makes us believe more in this pick, and we’ll grab the points at one of the few books offering Montreal at over a field goal.
Pick: Alouettes +3.5 -115