Week 7 CFL Picks: Backing Small Home Fave, Big Road Dog

Week 6 of the CFL season served up a wide range of entertainment value.

It kicked off with yet another thrilling finish, this time between the Alouettes and Blue Bombers, as Winnipeg scored 13 points in the final 100 seconds to stun Montreal 41-40. We were able to cash a point spread winner in that matchup, as Montreal covered the +3.5 points and should have won straight up.

We ended up sitting out the rest of Week 6 from a betting perspective. The Eskimos remained unbeaten with an impressive home victory over the Lions, and the Roughriders continued to show improvement under Chris Jones with an 11-point win over the visiting Argonauts. In the finale to Week 6, the Stampeders absolutely humiliated the Tiger-Cats 60-1, the opposite end of the spectrum of Winnipeg’s dramatic victory to start the week.

With that 1-0 showing in Week 6, we’re now 4-5 on the season with our weekly CFL betting picks against the spread. Let’s try to get back into the black with these Week 7 CFL betting picks.

 

Week 7 CFL Betting Lines

After posting the third-highest margin of victory in CFL history last week against the Tiger-Cats, the Stampeders go out on the road and are just 5-point favourites at Toronto to kick off Week 7’s action.

Calgary actually opened as 4-point favourites and you have to wonder what oddsmakers are trying to do with this line. They know most of the public money will come in on the Stamps after that blowout win and the Argos’ loss last week, yet they set the line this low.

The next game on the Week 7 CFL betting lines comes in Ottawa, where the RedBlacks are laying just 2 points at home to the Blue Bombers. Ottawa is 1-4 but it’s still the defending Grey Cup champions coming off a bye week, versus a Winnipeg squad that was a couple of minutes away from being 2-3 on the year.

The biggest CFL betting line of the season comes in Edmonton, where the unbeaten Eskimos are laying 14 points against the winless Tiger-Cats. It’s hard to find much faith in Hamilton after the Cats lost by 59 points last week, but the Eskimos haven’t won by this amount of points yet this year.

Week 7 will conclude Saturday night in Vancouver as the Lions host the Roughriders. B.C. is a 6.5-point favourite as it looks to rebound from its loss last week in Edmonton.

 

Week 7 CFL Betting Picks

1. Blue Bombers at RedBlacks Betting Pick


All aboard the Blue Bombers fade train as we continue to bet against Winnipeg as long as the oddsmakers allow us to.

As we continue to say every week, the Bombers are an overrated commodity based on the way they continue to win/play close games despite getting outgained in yards nearly every time they take the field. Winnipeg has allowed more yards than it has gained in 8 of its last 10 games, yet is 6-4 in those outings because the Bombers generate a lot of turnovers. Yards, not turnovers, are the best indication of how good a team really is, and Winnipeg won’t keep getting lucky forever.

Ottawa is 1-1-1 at home, with the loss coming by 1 point and the tie coming against the Stampeders. The RedBlacks had to play 2 games in 5 days in Week 5 but are now well rested, coming off their bye, and they should bring some desperation and focus as they look to avoid falling further behind the surprising Alouettes and Argos in the East.

We’ll happily lay the 2 points here with the team that we think is better, even if the records don’t reflect it.

Pick: RedBlacks -2 -110

2. Tiger-Cats at Eskimos Betting Pick


Was that rock bottom for the Ticats last week? You’d have to think so, since it’s pretty hard to lose by more points than that. And though a fight in practice this week may indicate that Hamilton is coming apart at the seams, we think it’s more of a good sign that the players are bothered by their embarrassing performance.

While the Tabbies look to atone for their humiliating effort, the Eskimos are in danger of suffering a letdown. Edmonton is unbeaten, coming off a big win over a division rival, and now faces a team that lost by 59 points? The Eskies might say all the right things in practice about how they can’t afford to overlook this opponent, but it’s another thing to actually believe it.

We like Hamilton to come out with a chip on its shoulder and cover the spread for the 5th straight visit to Edmonton. And if you think that’s crazy, we’re going to have a small piece of the Ticats moneyline (+550) as well.

Pick: Tiger-Cats +14 -110 at Sports Interaction