Cincinnati Bengals

NFL betting line: Over 8.5 -125/Under 8.5 -105
Last season: 10-6
Our pick: Over 8.5

The Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive playbook doesn’t seem that complex at times: throw it up to A.J. Green and hope for the best. But despite ranking 22^nd in total yards, the Bengals managed to score enough points (24.4 per game, 12^th in the NFL) and played good enough defence (eighth-fewest points allowed at 20 per game) to finish 10-6 and make their third playoff appearance in four years.

QB Andy Dalton and WR Green have a remarkable chemistry. More than one third of Dalton’s passing yards last year came on connections with Green, who scored 10 of his 11 touchdowns in the first 10 games of the season. The concern with the Bengals’ offence is that there isn’t much else for opponents to worry about. Cincy ranked 18^th in rushing yards a year ago — a low ranking for a 10-win team, since those teams are typically playing with a lead — and Dalton was sacked 46 times (third-most in the NFL).

Cincinnati’s defence emerged as one of the best young units in the league last year, ranking sixth in yards allowed. The Bengals remain both deep and talented on the defensive line, the team added former Steelers star James Harrison to its linebacker crops, and cornerbacks Leon Hall, Dre Kirkpatrick and Pacman Jones give Cincy a strong nickel package.

The Bengals benefitted from a soft schedule a year ago, with six of their wins coming against non-playoff teams from outside the division. The schedule isn’t that intimidating once again this year, with Cincy slated to visit Buffalo, Miami, San Diego and Chicago while hosting the Jets in addition to its two annual games against division rivals Cleveland, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The toughest non-divisional games on the schedule are against Green Bay, New England, Indianapolis and Minnesota, but Cincinnati will have the benefit of home-field advantage in all four of those contests.

We think the Bengals will continue improving this year and might even be capable of winning their first playoff game since 1990. Cincinnati should have a strong chance at reaching double digits in wins once again, so we recommend taking the over 8.5. But this recommendation comes with a caveat — if the Bengals have to play any extended time without A.J. Green, their season could unravel in a hurry.

Cincinnati Bengals 2013 schedule

1	Sun, Sep 8	@ Chicago	1:00 PM CBS
2	Mon, Sep 16	vs Pittsburgh	8:30 PM ESPN
3	Sun, Sep 22	vs Green Bay	1:00 PM FOX
4	Sun, Sep 29	@ Cleveland	1:00 PM CBS
5	Sun, Oct 6	vs New England	1:00 PM CBS
6	Sun, Oct 13	@ Buffalo	1:00 PM CBS
7	Sun, Oct 20	@ Detroit	1:00 PM CBS
8	Sun, Oct 27	vs NY Jets	4:05 PM CBS
9	Thu, Oct 31	@ Miami	8:25 PM NFL
10	Sun, Nov 10	@ Baltimore	1:00 PM CBS
11	Sun, Nov 17	vs Cleveland	1:00 PM CBS
12	BYE WEEK
13	Sun, Dec 1	@ San Diego	4:25 PM CBS
14	Sun, Dec 8	vs Indianapolis	1:00 PM CBS
15	Sun, Dec 15	@ Pittsburgh	8:30 PM NBC
16	Sun, Dec 22	vs Minnesota	1:00 PM FOX
17	Sun, Dec 29	vs Baltimore	1:00 PM CBS