College Football Betting Picks For Saturday, September 21

Stanford is looking to start the season 3-0 for the fourth straight year.
Stanford is looking to start the season 3-0 for the fourth straight year.

Thank God for point spreads, because there isn’t much else to keep this weekend’s college football matchups very interesting.

Only two games this week — Michigan State at Notre Dame and Arizona State at Stanford — feature a matchup of ranked teams. It’s quite a contrast from last weekend’s board that was highlighted by the showdown between Alabama and Texas A&M.

Notre Dame is a 4.5-point favourite against the Spartans in the best afternoon game of the day (3:30 p.m. eastern). The Irish actually opened as touchdown favourites but the line was quickly bet down off the key number of seven. That line movement could be in reaction to Notre Dame’s shaky start to the season, failing to cover in its first three games and struggling to beat a mediocre Purdue squad last week. Or perhaps it is in response to Michigan State’s recent play. The unranked Spartans are allowing a nation-low 177 yards per game and have averaged 34 points per game on offence.

Factor in that Michigan State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games at Notre Dame, and that the road team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings between the schools, and the case for the Spartans is clear. We recommend waiting to see if the line creeps back up, and we’d play Michigan State +6 or better.

Arizona State at Stanford is another game that opened with a 7-point spread and has seen movement towards the underdog. Bettors are likely impressed with Arizona State’s upset last weekend of then-No. 20 Wisconsin, though that victory was tainted by some extremely shady officiating that gifted the Sun Devils the game. Arizona State also boasts the country’s eighth-best passing attack and is 19th in points per game (43.5). Stanford is not a good matchup for the Sun Devils, however. The Cardinal ranks seventh against the pass (132.5 yards per game) and 15th overall.

Although these teams are Pac-12 rivals, this could be a bit of a letdown spot for the Sun Devils. Wisconsin is the defending Big Ten champion and there was quite a bit of celebration by Arizona State following last weekend’s win. Stanford has won eight of its last nine home games against ranked opponents, and we see the Cardinal making it nine of ten. We like Stanford -5.5.