Josh Donaldson has been everything the Blue Jays could hope for in his first year in a Toronto uniform. (Photo credit: Keith Allison / Foter / CC BY-SA)
It probably won’t surprise you to hear that Blue Jays slugger Josh Donaldson is in a two-way race with the Angels’ Mike Trout for the American League MVP award.
What might surprise you, however, is that Donaldson is a pretty big underdog to Trout when it comes to securing the coveted award.
At 5Dimes, one of of the few sportsbooks we could find today that was listing American League MVP betting odds, Trout is an overwheming 1:3 favourite to win MVP.
Donaldson, meanwhile, is listed at a hefty +260.
5Dimes American League MVP Betting Odds
If you’ve been watching or listening to Blue Jays’ coverage lately, you’ve likely heard Jays “analyst” Gregg Zaun sounding off about why Trout is the obvious choice. His biggest arguments are that Trout hits in a much weaker lineup, plays in a much less hitter-friendly home ballpark and patrols a more demanding defensive position (centre field).
If the season ended today my educated choice is still Mike Trout. In words of Yogi Berra, It ain’t over til its over https://t.co/ObEZsGUOzf
— Gregg Zaun (@GreggZaun) August 21, 2015
However, Donaldson seems worth the +260 gamble in our eyes.
The biggest reason why is that many MVP voters lean towards selecting players on teams that make the playoffs.
The Jays are in better position than the Angels in the AL playoff race. Toronto’s been surging since adding Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, while LA has been scuffling for weeks. The Jays are expected by many to win the AL East, and the Angels — though just a few games behind the Astros in the AL West — are battling for the second wild card.
Should Donaldson’s Jays make the playoffs and Trout’s Angels miss them, that could swing a lot of MVP votes Donaldson’s way.
One other reason why Donaldson could win the AL MVP is that Trout won it last year.
Fair or not, voters tend to spread the MVP love around, rather than hand it out repeatedly to the same player.
Otherwise, LeBron James would probably have been the NBA MVP for the last seven straight seasons, instead of just winning it four times.