Eight NFL Live Betting Tips

There are wild swings in every NFL game, opening up opportunities for live betting.

Live betting is becoming more and more popular as a way of making NFL spread picks.

Football is a great sport for live betting because of all the sudden changes in momentum.

One team can look in full control before a fluke interception or fumble turns the game around. Even a dropped pass or holding penalty can be enough to disrupt a promising drive and quickly shift the odds in the other direction.

Here are 8 NFL live betting tips to help you make more money this season:

1. Look for value

Unless you were too busy before the game to place your bet, you should only use NFL live betting to try to get better value on the NFL lines.

For example, you want to bet on the Patriots +3 but the best odds you could find before the game were +1. By doing live betting, you can wait to see if the Patriots fall behind early, then get your +3 (or maybe even better) on the NFL live betting lines.

Football games are filled with momentum shifts and turnovers. If a 14-point lead isn’t safe, you shouldn’t worry too much about betting on a team that is down 14 points. Besides, they might now be +10 on the NFL live betting lines instead of -3.

And try to avoid getting worse odds on NFL live betting lines than you could have before the game began. It’s hard enough to beat the NFL point spreads already, don’t make it harder for yourself.

2. Decide what type of bets you want to make before the game

When doing NFL live betting, it’s important to identify which side or proposition you want to bet on before the game starts.

Let’s say the Dolphins fall behind the Ravens 14-0 and go from +3 to +11 on the NFL live betting lines. Your gut instinct might be to take the value of the +11 on the Dolphins. But if you thought the Ravens would destroy the Dolphins before the game started, you’d actually be contradicting your own prediction if you now took the Dolphins +11.

Know which bet you want to make, then patiently wait to see if some advantageous NFL live betting odds come along, and then pull the trigger.

3. Know teams’ tendencies and strengths

As the season unfolds, teams will begin to show different tendencies. Some might always get off to slow starts while others tend to struggle late.

Predicting how teams start or finish is a big part of NFL live betting. There’s no point in betting on a team before the game if it’s likely that they’ll be down 10-0 in the second quarter. And there’s not much sense in live betting on a team in the third quarter if they’re likely to fall apart in the fourth.

Know their strengths and confidence levels as well.

If a team has an awful QB and is used to losing every game, you don’t want to be live betting on them when they’re down 14 points, having to pass every down and are ready to throw in the towel.

If a team has won a few games in a row and is playing with confidence, they might be a great live betting pick if they go down by a couple touchdowns.

4. Try to middle

As much as NFL live betting can be a rush, it’s also about making money. The best way to make money is to remove as much risk as possible.

Middling a bet (betting on both sides, with the possibility to win both) is a great way to do that.

Let’s say you bet on the Vikings +7 when they were down 3-0 in the first quarter. The Vikings then scored two quick touchdowns to go up 14-3 in the second quarter, and now the Lions are +8.

If you put another live bet on the Lions +8, you have hardly any risk now. The most you can lose is the juice you paid on one of the bets, and you can win both if the Lions win by 1-6 points,  the Vikings win by 1-7 points or they tie.

Risking 0.1 units to win 2 units with 14 possible winning margins is a bet we’ll make any day of the week.

5. Shop for the best odds

NFL live betting odds will vary by sportsbook, so it’s good to have multiple accounts.

This way, if Sports Interaction is offering the Giants -3 on the NFL live betting lines and a different sportsbook has the Giants -3.5, you don’t have to lay more than a field goal.

Pinnacle Sports consistently charges the lowest juice on NFL live betting. But Sports Interaction and Bodog are great to use for props.

6. Pay attention

NFL live betting lines are more based on statistical trends than they are on actual analysis of each game.

What that means is that books assign live betting lines based on what teams in that situation typically do. The odds are essentially created by a formula that takes into account the pre-game spread, the score of the game, how much time is left in the game, who’s got the ball, and what the down and distance is.

For example, a 7-point underdog trailing by 10 points in the 1st quarter might generally be +13 on the live betting odds, but a 7-point favourite might be +3.

Oddsmakers aren’t watching the games as closely as you are, especially on an NFL Sunday with 10 games going on at once. They just don’t have the time and manpower to do that.

So keep an eye out for any injuries (particularly to linemen or defensive players) or big momentum shifts. This can give you an edge on the oddsmakers.

So, too, can misleading scores. The Chiefs might be leading the Broncos by 14 points early on, but their two touchdowns might have come on a fumble return and a punt return. You could get the Broncos at very fat live betting odds, knowing that they’re not being outplayed as badly as the score suggests.

7. Know the math and key numbers

NFL key numbers are as important to remember in live betting as they are in regular betting.

More NFL games are decided by 3 points than any other margin, so do all you can to avoid making live bets at +2.5 or -3.5. +6.5 and -7.5 are also numbers to avoid, since you can lose both in a 7-point game. Try to wait out the action a little bit more so you can get +3.5 or -2.5, +7.5 or -6.5.

You’ll also need to do a little predictive math as the game unfolds.

If the Raiders are down by 1 point in the fourth quarter, there isn’t that much value in +3.5. If they give up a field goal, they’ll be down by 4 and you’ll lose your +3.5 bet, even though you were on the right side of the key number of 3.

8. Don’t chase

Not every bet you make in NFL live betting is going to work out.

Sometimes you’ll bet on a team that is down 14 points, only to see them give up another score a few minutes later.

As your live bet starts to look worse and worse, the odds on that team will look better and better. If you live bet the Jaguars at +10, you’re probably going to be tempted to do it again when they hit +14 or +17.

Unless you are seeing something that convinces you the game is going to change directions in a hurry, don’t chase your mistakes.

Cut your losses.

Remember, you don’t usually make multiple winning bets on one game in live betting, so don’t wipe out your profits by losing a bunch of bets on one game either.