For a team that has lost 15 straight games, the Raiders are actually pretty competitive on the road. (Photo credit: june10459 / Foter / CC BY-SA)
NFL betting line moves early in the week are a good indication of where the most money is coming in.
As oddsmakers take more and more bets on a team, they’ll move the NFL betting lines in order to try to balance the action with bets on the other side.
Here are the five NFL betting lines that moved the most early in Week 11, and our opinions on the line moves.
LINE MOVE: Redskins -6 to -7 vs Buccaneers
Agree/Disagree: DISAGREE
The Redskins are coming off a bye week and, even at 3-6, there’s still talk about a playoff push in Washington. Don’t forget that just two years ago, the Redskins were in the same position before winning their last seven games to make the postseason. Washington has shown flashes of potential this year, including an upset win in Dallas and a three-point loss to the Eagles.
There doesn’t seem to be much to like about the 1-8 Bucs, who lost by 10 last week at home to the Falcons. However, Tampa’s been quite competitive on the road, keeping three of four contests within a touchdown (the spread for this game) including a victory in Pittsburgh. We’re not quite sure a blowout is a guarantee in this one.
LINE MOVE: Bears -4.5 to -3 vs Vikings
Agree/Disagree: DISAGREE
Well, this line move was predictable, wasn’t it? Everyone saw the Bears soil themselves on Sunday Night Football against the Packers, the second straight week Chicago allowed 50-plus points. Rumours are swirling about the demise of head coach Marc Trestman or the benching of QB Jay Cutler.
The NFC North rival Vikings aren’t quite the get-well-quick team Chicago needs to see, either. Minny is coming off a bye and has won two in a row (that streak would be three if it weren’t for a last-second loss in Buffalo). The Vikes don’t seem to miss Adrian Peterson at all.
A field goal spread might seem a little cheap, but you couldn’t pay us to bet on the Bears these days.
LINE MOVE: Saints -5.5 to -7 vs Bengals
AGREE/DISAGREE: Disagree
This line move seems more of an indictment of the Bengals than faith in the Saints. Cincy was absolutely awful in its last outing, getting blown out at home on Thursday Night Football by the Browns. The Bengals have also lost their last two road games by a combined total of 53 points.
New Orleans, meanwhile, is coming off a ridiculously rare loss at home, falling to the desperate 49ers in overtime. Drew Brees has looked rather ordinary this year, tied for second in the league in the most interceptions thrown (10). Usually, any time the Saints are laying a touchdown or less at home is worth a look, but their opponent will be especially hungry in this one.
LINE MOVE: Chiefs +1 to -1.5 vs Seahawks
AGREE/DISAGREE: Agree
After an 0-2 start, the Chiefs are starting to look a lot like last year’s playoff team. Kansas City has lost just once since Week 2, a five-point defeat in San Francisco. The Chiefs’ defence has allowed an average of 10 points against in its last three outings.
Yeah, Seattle ended up beating the Giants by 21 points last week, when Marshawn Lynch ran for four TDs. But we’re still not convinced the Seahawks are back on track after their mid-season stumble. Seattle actually trailed the Giants 17-14 late in the third quarter last week at home, and Russell Wilson threw for just 172 yards and two interceptions.
Something still smells funny about this Seattle team, and there’s no way they should have been favoured in KC in the first place.
LINE MOVE: Chargers -8 to -10 vs Raiders
AGREE/DISAGREE: Disagree
If you’re ever feeling down, just be glad you’re not a Raiders fan. (Our apologies if you are.) Oakland had lost 15 straight games dating back to last season, which is awfully difficult to do in the parity-driven NFL. They can’t run the ball (30 yards on 15 carries last week against Denver) and can’t throw it much better either. Still, as bad as this team has been overall, the Raiders consistently give strong efforts on the road. It might surprise you to hear they haven’t lost a road game by more than 10 points this year (including a 7-point loss in New England and a 6-point defeat in Seattle).
The Chargers don’t quite seem like the team you want to lay double-digit points with. San Diego has lost three in a row since starting the year with a 5-1 mark. In their last outing, the Chargers were drilled 37-0 in Miami. They’ve had a bye week since to think about things, so it’ll be interesting to see if they’re motivated to put that embarrassment behind them or whether their struggles continue.
If you believe in trends, you might want to know the underdog is 10 against the spread in the last 11 games in this series, and the Raiders have covered four of their last five trips to San Diego. Plug your nose with Oakland +10 or better.