Week 5 NFL Picks: Going Against Public Favourites

We suffered our first losing week of the season last week, going 1-2.

In our Week 5 picks, we won with the Colts/Jaguars Over 49.5 but lost the Buccaneers +3.5. Our other loss came on a teaser of the Bears and Jets, with Chicago covering their leg of the teaser but the Jets falling apart late to spoil our ticket.

We’re now 7-5 on the year for +0.3 units. Let’s get back on track with these Week 5 NFL betting picks.

(FYI: You can get these weekly free NFL picks emailed directly to your inbox. Just subscribe to our email list at the base of this article.)

1. Texans +7 (-110)

We love what the Vikings are doing without Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson. They’re winning with an excellent defence and with a ball control, don’t-turn-it-over offence. It’s been very impressive to watch, and Mike Zimmer is proving himself to be a phenomenal coach.

But teams that win with excellent defence and a ball control, don’t-turn-it-over offence don’t typically blow out the opposition. Especially when the opposition has a very good defence of its own.

Other than their embarrassing 27-0 loss in New England a couple weeks ago on Thursday Night Football (Thursday nighters have proven to be very unpredictable because of the short turnaround time for teams to prepare), the Texans have held all 3 opponents this year to 20 points or less. It’s not likely that the Vikings will score much more than 20 points in this game, either. It’s hard to cover touchdown point spreads in that scenario.

The other thing favouring Houston in this matchup is the potential for a Vikings letdown. Minnesota has started the season with a Week 1 game in Tennessee (Week 1 isn’t exactly a look-ahead spot), a home game as underdogs to Green Bay, a road game in Carolina and then a Monday Night Football home game. It’s simply impossible for the Vikes to be emotionally primed for every matchup, and a visit from a non-conference opponent in Week 5 seems as good a time as any to let up a bit. We think the Texans keep things close throughout, and would not be surprised at all to see Houston pull out the outright win.

As of Friday afternoon, you could get Houston +7 -110 at Sports Interaction and Bodog.

2. Chargers +4 (-115)

Oakland has been a sexy darkhorse pick in the last few years, but the Raiders are finally delivering on their potential. Derek Carr has been very impressive, especially last week as he drove the Raiders down the field for the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter in Baltimore.

However, it’s one thing for the Raiders to win games. It’s another to win them by comfortable margins. 2 of Oakland’s 3 wins this year have been by 1 point. And San Diego’s been in every game it’s played so far this year, with their 3 losses coming by a combined total of 11 points.

The underdog is 13-3 against the spread in the last 16 meetings between these AFC West rivals, and the visiting team has covered 8 of the last 11 matchups. Nothing comes easy when these teams collide, and we see the potential for another close game – or even a San Diego upset – this week.

Bodog had the Chargers +4 -115 as of Friday afternoon.

3. Broncos/Steelers 2-Team, 6-Point Teaser (-110)


Both of these teams are favoured by a touchdown, but we can move them down to pick ’em range with a 6-point teaser.

Denver faces Atlanta in the classic matchup of offence versus defence. Atlanta sent shockwaves through the NFL last week as Matt Ryan threw for 500+ yards and Julio Jones had 300 receiving yards, but it’ll be much tougher this week in the altitude of Denver and against the second-ranked Broncos pass defence.

There are question marks about Trevor Siemian at QB for the Broncos, but he’s expected to start. And if he comes out of the game, we don’t have any trouble backing Paxton Lynch. As long as the Broncos don’t turn the ball over, they should win this game at home.

Pittsburgh was impressive last week in a Sunday Night Football dismantling of the Chiefs, while the Jets struggled at home against the Seahawks. Ordinarily, we’d lean towards the Jets because of the extra line value in this spot, but the teaser allows us to simply ask Pittsburgh to win the game. We certainly like their chances at home.

This 6-point teaser moved Denver to +1.5 and the Steelers to -1.5 at Pinnacle.