Every now and then here at Sportsbookbonus.ca, we’ll be posting a free pick that we are betting ourselves.
Like anyone else, we’re not going to win every single one of these plays. But over time, we expect these picks to be profitable for both us and our followers.
Yesterday in college, we won with the Georgia Bulldogs mauling the Tennessee Volunteers as 11-point favourite. As expected, Georgia came out as the hungrier team and didn’t let up on the overmatched Vols.
This Sunday in the NFL, one of our favourite plays on the board is the Broncos and Ravens to go over the total.
First of all, the total on this game is posted at 39.5. That’s low, considering that totals in the 30’s are usually reserved for two teams with dominant defences and dormant offences. We just don’t see that here.
Granted, the Ravens aren’t setting the scoreboards on fire – yet. It’s taken longer than expected for Joe Flacco and company to get things rolling, but we are seeing some good signs. Flacco threw for 250 yards last week against a good Pittsburgh defence, including the game-winning TD pass to T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the final minute, and the Ravens picked up 22 first downs. Baltimore is much more of a passing team than in years past, and pass-happy teams are good to bet over the total because the clock stops on incompletions. Meanwhile, the Ravens defence ranks near the top of the NFL again, but they have taken advantage of playing offensively-challenged teams like the Jets, Steelers, Bengals and Browns.
Denver will be much tougher to stop. No one seems to be paying attention to Kyle Orton, but they really should be. The Broncos QB leads the league in passing yards and has thrown six TDs in his first four games. Again, pass-happy teams are more prone to go over the total, as Denver has in three of its first four games. The one game that the Broncos didn’t go over in, a loss to the Colts, saw Denver move the ball with ease before failing to score on five trips inside the red zone.
We anticipate a competitive game here where both teams should contribute to the scoring. If the losing team even just gets to 17 points, we’ve got a great chance of cashing a ticket. But we won’t be surprised to see both teams get into the 20s.
Take the Broncos/Ravens over 39.5, and good luck!
Free picks record: 2-2 (-$33)