Week 6 NFL Picks: Trends Favour Chiefs, But Not Steelers

Second straight 1-2 week for us in our Week 5 NFL betting picks, dropping us to 8-7 on the year.

The Chargers continued to prove they’re one of the more under-rated commodities in the NFL, battling the Raiders all the way to the final minute in Oakland to lose by 3 points but cover the +4 for us. San Diego followed that up this week with a Thursday Night Football victory over the Broncos, and they entered the week leading the entire NFL in most minutes played with a lead.

Our losses came on Houston +7 in Minnesota (the Texans came up way short once again in a matchup with an elite team on the road, and there’s real question whether they made a mistake signing Brock Osweiler) and a teaser on the Broncos and Steelers (Pittsburgh pounded the Jets, but Denver lost at home to the Falcons).

It’s been three 2-1 weeks and two 1-2 weeks for us so far this year. Hopefully these Week 6 NFL betting picks are the time we break out for our first sweep of the campaign.

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1. Dolphins +8.5 (-110)

Going with a buy low, sell high mentality here, which is usually a pretty successful way to approach NFL betting. The Dolphins’ stock couldn’t be much lower right now, coming off a depressing home loss to the Titans, and Pittsburgh’s stock is skyhigh following blowout home wins over the Chiefs and Jets.

The key about those Steeler wins over KC and New York is that they came at home. Pittsburgh has been one of the most extreme home-away dichotomies in the NFL in recent years, and that’s continued this season.

Pittsburgh’s road performances are even worse when facing mediocre teams. In their last 29 road games against teams with losing records at home, the Steelers are an awful 6-22-1 against the spread, indicating an inability to cover large numbers on the highway.

It’s a leap of faith to back Miami right now, no doubt about it. But we can’t forget this is the same Dolphins team that nearly won in Seattle in Week 1 and lost to the Patriots by 7 in New England (the Pats were without Tom Brady, but still), and just hope Miami shows up with some pride on Sunday.

We were able to catch +8.5 points with the Dolphins at Bodog, a sportsbook that often inflates the point spreads on popular teams like the Steelers.

2. Chiefs -1 (-113)

Trends can be a dangerous thing to follow blindly, but they can also be helpful if you can understand why that particular trend exists.

Andy Reid’s record off a bye is one trend we believe in. Over his career with the Eagles and now the Chiefs, Reid’s teams are 15-2 after a week off. That record is straight up and doesn’t account for the point spread, but this spread of -1 simply asks the Chiefs to win anyway.

We like Oakland a lot (picked them at 3:1 odds to win the AFC West before the season began) but they might be an over-rated squad right now at 4-1. The Raiders’ 4 wins have come by a combined total of 12 points, and victims include the Falcons and Titans. Their defence has also been a turnstile, ranking last in the NFL in total yards and passing yards allowed, and 27th against the run.

A couple more trends to throw your way: Kansas City is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 visits to Oakland, and the road team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings between the teams. In a fierce AFC West rivalry, we expect a very focused Chiefs team to prevent the Raiders from pulling a little further away in the division standings.

The Chiefs were -1.5 at some sportsbooks as of Friday morning, but we grabbed -1 at -113 odds at Pinnacle.

3. Seahawks/Rams 2-Team, 6-Point Teaser (-110)

Love getting Seattle in a step-up spot, and they’re coming off a bye to boot.

The Seahawks lead the NFL in total defence, are 3rd against the pass and 7th against the run. Atlanta was slowed up last week in Denver by the tough Broncos defence, but Denver could only manage 16 points with Paxton Lynch at QB.

We don’t think 23 will be enough for Atlanta this week, and we’ll challenge the Falcons to upset an elite defence on the road for the second straight week. Seattle is a 6-point favourite, so by teasing them 6 points, we just need the Seahawks to win the game.

LA is coming off a disappointing home loss to the Bills when they were missing 3 starters on the defensive line, which proved to be a very tough matchup against a Buffalo offence that thrives on moving the ball on the ground. The Rams could still be without at least 2 of those starters this week, but Detroit isn’t as much of a running threat.

We’re also fading the Lions’ ability to win any game easily. Detroit has won just two games by more than 8 points since the start of last season, and teasing the Rams up from +3 to +9 requires the Lions to win by double digits.

We recommend making this bet at either Pinnacle or Bodog, since they have the best NFL teaser odds on 2-team, 6-point teasers.