Our Week 7 NFL betting picks were 2-1, bumping us to 13-8 on the year for approximately 4 units of profit.
Detroit took us on an emotional rollercoaster against the Redskins, allowing a TD with 1:05 left in the fourth quarter to go down by 4, then driving for a go-ahead TD with 16 seconds left to win by 3 and cover the -1.
Our other win was on a teaser of the Eagles +9 and Seahawks +7.5. Philadelphia beat the Vikings outright by 11 points, and Seattle tied Arizona 6-6 in what was otherwise the ugliest game in the history of Sunday Night Football.
The loss was on the Steelers +7.5 against New England. We thought Pittsburgh might rise to the occasion without Ben Roethlisberger, and the Steelers were within 4 points in the fourth quarter but just couldn’t stay within a touchdown, losing by 11.
We’re now 5-1 over the past 2 weeks and shoot for our 3rd straight winning week with these Week 8 NFL betting picks.
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1. Patriots -5 (-107)
On the surface, it looks like tons of line value on the Bills here. If you account for 3 points for home field advantage, that would make the Patriots -11 over Buffalo if they were playing in New England, and people would line up to bet the Bills at that number.
The Patriots have a long track record of same-season revenge (beating an opponent that beat them previously in the same season). Buffalo humiliated the Pats 16-0 at Gillette Stadium earlier this month in the final game of Brady’s suspension, and Belichick will be out for blood here. We also can’t forget Brady’s career record versus Buffalo: a ridiculous 25-2 when he plays the entire game (the Pats lost once to Buffalo when Brady just played the first half).
Buffalo looked like they had things together earlier this month, rolling off a 4-game win streak. But those wins came over the Brady-less Pats, the 49ers, an underachieving Arizona team and the Rams. New England is a big step-up in class, and we expect the Patriots to roll.
2. Browns +3 (-120)
The Browns only have so many winnable games on their schedule, and this looks like it might be their best chance to avoid a winless season.
Cleveland is 0-7, but they continue to play hard. In the games they’ve been blown out, it’s been by superior opposition and talent. In the games they have a fighting chance in, they’ve lost by 4 to the Ravens, by 6 in Miami and by 2 in Tennessee. They’ve also played just 2 home games so far, compared to 5 on the road.
The Jets are going nowhere, and everybody knows it. They’re also coming off an 8-point win at home over the Ravens that snapped a 4-game winning streak, and New York might not come into this game as hungry as a Browns squad desperate to get its first win of the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick got the starting QB job back again after Geno Smith tore his hamstring, but Fitzpatrick lost the starting QB job for a reason. Hopefully Cleveland’s defence can force some early turnovers and the Browns can jump to a lead, then hang on or at least stay within a field goal.
3. Saints +8.5/Chargers +10.5 (-110 odds on 2-team, 6-Point Teaser)
We’ll use a 6-point teaser to move both New Orleans and San Diego through a pair of key numbers.
The Saints are 2.5-point underdogs at home this week to Seattle, so moving the line 6 points allows us to win if New Orleans loses by a field goal or even a touchdown (the 2 most common margins of victory in the NFL).
It should be hard for the Seahawks to blow New Orleans out here in the Superdome. 3 of the Saints’ 4 losses have come by a TD or less, and the other came against a high-powered Falcons offence. Seattle scored 6 points last week, the 3rd time in 6 games this season they’ve been held to 12 points or fewer. It’s also the Seahawks’ second straight road game and they could let down a bit after playing to a tie against a division opponent last week on Sunday Night Football.
San Diego is a 4.5-point underdog in Denver. By teasing the Chargers up to 10.5, we can win on them even if San Diego loses by 10 – which is a touchdown plus a field goal.
The argument for San Diego is simple – they’re in every game. All 4 losses this year were by less than 7 points, and they’re coming off a confidence-boosting win last week in Atlanta. No fear of a letdown here – these are fierce AFC West rivals and the Chargers haven’t lost hope of challenging for the division title. Denver is on a short week after beating the Texans on Monday Night Football, and the Chargers are 8-1-4 against the spread in their last 13 trips to Mile High.