Green Bay Packers
NFL betting line: Over 10.5 +100/Under 10.5 -130 (odds subject to change)
Last year: 11-5
Our pick: Under 10.5
Unless you’re a fan of another team in the NFC North, chances are you have a soft spot for the Green Bay Packers. They’ve been entertaining for decades (for a variety of reasons during the Brett Favre era) and they are perhaps the most successful “small market” organization in pro sports. They’re lovable like the Chicago Cubs, but they win the occasional championship as well.
With public affection comes public money. It’s tough to find any “value” when betting on the Packers, whether it be on the point spread of a game or whether it’s regular season win totals. Oddsmakers have once again set a lofty standard for Green Bay in 2013, requiring the Pack to win 11 games to cash the over. There’s certainly plenty of talent in Green Bay again this year, but 11-win seasons don’t come easily in the NFL.
Led by all-world quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the offence is certainly flashy. Rodgers ranked second in the NFL with 39 TD passes a year ago, and led the league with a QB rating of 108.0. He has a plethora of receiving weapons, including WR Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and James Jones as well as TE Jermichael Finley. One of those other options, however, is now gone with the departure of Greg Jennings (Vikings). The offensive line isn’t exactly a fortress, allowing eight first-half sacks in that memorable loss to Seattle last year on Monday Night Football. And the Pack’s running game remains an issue, with no one rushing for 500 yards last season and Rodgers ranking second on the team in yards on the ground. Green Bay might have put up the fifth-most points in the league last year, but the Packers were just 13th in total yards.
The Green Bay defence, led by linebacker Clay Matthews, also carries a reputation as one of the better ones in the league. Green Bay ranked fourth in the NFL last year in sacks (47) and was very strong against the pass, but it did allow 4.54 yards per carry to opposing backs. And the Packers’ defence hardly looked invincible in its playoff loss to the 49ers, allowing 45 points. Green Bay released veteran safety Charles Woodson in the offseason, but Woodson only played seven games last year (broken collarbone).
One other area of concern for the Packers is in the kicking game. Mason Crosby made a league-low 63.6 per cent of his field goal attempts in 2012, and he might not even make the team this season.
The Green Bay schedule looks quite tough. The Packers should win at least four of their six games against division rivals Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago, but home games against Cleveland and Philadelphia are the only ‘easy’ non-divisional contests on their slate. Washington, Atlanta and Pittsburgh will all visit Lambeau Field in 2013, while the Packers will visit San Francisco, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Dallas and the New York Giants.
It’s not easy betting against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. But sometimes the best bets are the bets you feel most uncomfortable making. Like we said at the beginning, there’s often a lot of value going against “public” teams like Green Bay, and we think this season win total is just a tad inflated. We fully expect the Packers to win the division, but 11 wins will be awfully tough to get to — and if Rodgers goes down to injury at all, as he did a couple years ago at the end of the season, Green Bay is little more than an average team in our eyes. Close your eyes, grit your teeth and take the under 10.5 wins this season on Green Bay.
Green Bay Packers 2013 schedule
| 1 | Sun, Sep 8 |
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4:25 PM FOX | |||
| 2 | Sun, Sep 15 |
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1:00 PM FOX | |||
| 3 | Sun, Sep 22 |
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1:00 PM FOX | |||
| 4 | BYE WEEK | |||||
| 5 | Sun, Oct 6 |
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1:00 PM FOX | |||
| 6 | Sun, Oct 13 |
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1:00 PM FOX | |||
| 7 | Sun, Oct 20 |
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4:25 PM CBS | |||
| 8 | Sun, Oct 27 |
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8:30 PM NBC | |||
| 9 | Mon, Nov 4 |
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8:30 PM ESPN | |||
| 10 | Sun, Nov 10 |
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1:00 PM FOX | |||
| 11 | Sun, Nov 17 |
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8:30 PM NBC | |||
| 12 | Sun, Nov 24 |
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1:00 PM FOX | |||
| 13 | Thu, Nov 28 |
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12:30 PM FOX | |||
| 14 | Sun, Dec 8 |
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8:30 PM NBC | |||
| 15 | Sun, Dec 15 |
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4:25 PM FOX | |||
| 16 | Sun, Dec 22 |
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4:25 PM CBS | |||
| 17 | Sun, Dec 29 |
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1:00 PM FOX | |||