9 Ultimate Keys To Winning More NFL Bets

The NFL is the most heavily-wagered sport in the world.

Yet, with each of the 32 teams playing just a 16-game regular season schedule, the NFL offers significantly less betting opportunities than any other major sport.

Help tip the odds of winning in your favour with these 9 ways how to win money at football bets.

1. Know the key numbers


The nature of NFL scoring makes certain point spread numbers more important than others.

Did you know that 5 point spread numbers are more important than all the others, accounting for more than 40% of all margins of victory?

The numbers 3, 4, 6, 7 and 10 are key NFL point spread numbers and absolutely must be considered when betting a game.

Consistently betting games at -3.5 or -7.5 is a surefire way to lose money over the long term, especially if you could have got -3 or -7 simply by using a different sportsbook. (That’s why it pays to have accounts at several different sportsbooks.)

2. Bet at the right time


NFL lines are posted well in advance of Sunday’s action and they move constantly during the week.

Take a look at the games for the upcoming week early to see what you may bet on and attempt to lock in the best number using this basic strategy – bet favourites or overs early in the week and underdogs or unders later in the week.

If you like the Rams +9.5 on Monday morning, there’s a strong chance you can get them +10.5 on Sunday about an hour before kickoff. Like we said in the last point, being able to win on key numbers like 10 is a great way to cash more bets.

Remember, NFL lines are usually pretty sharp. One way to get a little bit of an advantage is to get the best line by betting at the right time.

3. Line shop

If you’re going to win money betting the NFL you have to get the best number on your games consistently and that involves line shopping – comparing the numbers at various sportsbooks in order to find the best one.

Let’s say you really like Green Bay and the line is -7.5. You may be able to find that all-important -7 at one of the sportsbooks you use, allowing you to bet the game at a great number.

But if you bet with only one sportsbook, you’ll either have to take the number they are offering or pass the game.

At a minimum, you should have two funded sportsbook accounts to do a little line shopping. Ideally, a bettor should have more accounts.

We recommend having reduced juice accounts like Pinnacle and 5Dimes, recreational accounts at places like Bodog and Sports Interaction (you can often get a better line on underdogs at these books), and at least one good sportsbook bonus account like GTbets.

4. Practice good money management

Professional bettors will tell you the one piece of advice to remember is to practice good money management.

Sports betting money management systems vary, but we suggest you try to consistently bet the same amount per game.  Doubling up or push during winning or losing streaks, simply because you’re “hot”, you’re “due” or you’re trying to recoup your losses, is a recipe for disaster.

Most pros bet 1%-3% of their bankroll per game and we’d advise never betting above 5% of your bankroll in one shot.

Be like the pros and practice sound bankroll management.

5. Be selective

If you are the type of bettor that sets aside a certain amount of money each season and bets every game on the board, then by all means go nuts and have fun.

But if you want to turn a profit betting the NFL, you have to be selective.

There are only 13-16 games in any one NFL week. If you’re betting all (or most) of them and not doing so well, consider betting on a handful of games you really like.

If you insist on having action on every game, at least reduce your risk of busting out on a bad week by betting a smaller amount per game, especially on the games you don’t really see much of an edge in.

Even the best NFL handicappers have winless weeks and you don’t want to go 0-10 one week while betting 10% of your bankroll per game or you just went broke. It happens!

6. Take a look at teasers

A lot of guys will tell you teasers are sucker bets but we don’t think that’s entirely accurate.

The problem with teasers is that you have to win each leg 70%+ of the time to turn a profit. With a 2-team teaser for instance, you need each game to win 72.5% of the time just to break even. Moving the line 6 points in your favour helps a lot, but a 72.5% win rate is still daunting.

One strategy we like and has worked well in the past is to take a look at the board and try to identify two games that you really like at their current lines which can be teased to span a few key numbers.

For instance, if you really like the Saints -7.5 and the Rams +2, you can tease those games to Saints -1.5 and Rams +8 and span 4 key numbers in the process – 3, 4, 6 and 7 – greatly increasing your chances of winning the teaser.

7. Don’t be a square

Sportsbooks make a lot of money and they make most of it from square bettors – those that pile on to one side of a game typically involving a popular team like Dallas or New England.

It’s fine to occasionally back public teams, since they win games too. But if you are losing cash and consistently find yourself on the popular side of a game, you should consider changing your strategy.

8. Do your research

We live in the information age and it’s really easy to get bogged down in the gobs of data about each and every NFL game.

For every stat that indicates a team should cover, there is another that says they shouldn’t.

The goal when looking at stats is to filter out the noise and try and find things that may impact the game but aren’t generating much buzz.

Make sure not to put too much stock in trends. Just because the Ravens have covered 7 of their last 8 visits to New Orleans doesn’t mean much if only 2 of those 8 games were played in the last 10 years.

Instead, focus on stats that are a bit more analytical and predictive. Yards per play on both offense and defense are great ways to measure the quality of a team, and are much more reliable than the fact that the Dolphins have gone Under in 8 of their last 9 Monday Night Football games when facing non-conference teams on grass.

9. Linemen are the key

One strategy we really like to is take a good look at the status of the offensive and defensive lines on a team.

These are the guys that set up all the plays with their blocking and have a tremendous impact on the game.

On the offensive side of the ball, you would probably be lucky to name a handful of the 160 starting linemen in the league. But when you consider that these guys protect the quarterback, give him time to throw and open up holes for the running backs to run through, they are extremely important.

Is a key guy out? Is there a rookie starting for the first time? Collectively, are they banged up? Not gelling?

These are the types of questions to ask yourself as you look at a game. Linemen are very important and aren’t factored into the betting line nearly as much as they should be.