The Buffalo Bulls are a #12 seed but just a 4.5 point favourite in their first game? Hmmm... (Photo credit: ChadCooperPhotos / Foter / CC BY)
We went a sweet 2-0 with our March Madness picks yesterday, cashing with Northeastern +12.5 vs Notre Dame and UAB +13.5 vs Iowa State. UAB even won the game straight up for good measure.
Let’s try and do it again with a pair of March Madness picks for Friday. Once again, a couple of underdogs have caught our attention.
#2 Virginia vs #15 Belmont
Time: 3:10 p.m. eastern (Charlotte, N.C.)
Our pick: Belmont +17
Virginia has stifled opponents all season to the tune of an NCAA-leading 50.7 points allowed per game.
But most of the Cavaliers’ defence is based on denying the interior. That shouldn’t affect a team like Belmont too much.
Belmont prefers to shoot from the perimeter. The Bruins ranked fourth in the NCAA in three pointers made per game, averaging 10. So whether Belmont can stay in the game is more dependent on how well they shoot the 3 than whatever defence Virginia throws at them.
The Bruins’ weakness is defence, allowing more than 70 points a game this season. But the Cavaliers’ slow place won’t exploit this too badly, and we can see Belmont hanging within striking distance in this one.
#5 West Virginia vs #12 Buffalo
Time: 2:10 p.m. eastern (Columbus, Oh.)
Our pick: Buffalo +4.5
West Virginia isn’t exactly a finely-tuned machine when it comes to offence. The Mountaineers suck in the half court, so they have to rely on forcing turnovers and scoring in transition.
That means they play a high-pressure defence that forces opponents into mistakes. The problem for West Virginia in its Round 2 March Madness matchup is that Buffalo is one of the best teams in the NCAA when it comes to protecting the basketball. If the Bulls don’t turn it over, as is usually the case, they should be able to stay close or even win this game.
Another telling sign that the Bulls might cover this game is the line itself. How often do you see a #5 favoured by only 4.5 points over a #12, especially when the #5 is from a major conference and the #12 is making a rare NCAA Tournament appearance? The oddsmakers are telling us something with this line, and we’re listening.
Note: When betting on underdogs like these two March Madness picks, it’s often wise to wait until right before game time. With most people lining up to bet on the favourite, the point spread will likely shift a half point or more in your direction, which can be the difference between winning or losing your bet.
It’s also wise to have accounts at sportsbooks like Bodog or Sports Interaction, since they are recreational sportsbooks that often shade their lines towards the favourites. This is another way to get an extra half point or more on your March Madness picks.